Chicago - Trade Positions For USDA Acreage And Stocks Reports

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:08 | Categorized as

29/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower and meal higher. Traders are jockeying for position ahead of tomorrow's acreage report. Guesses for that vary from 82.632 to 85.7 and average 83.834 million acres. The March figure was 82.236 million.  A Bloomberg survey predicts June 1 US soybean stocks to be 0.831 billion bushels on average. Strong demand sees the trade anticipating another round of robust export sales tomorrow. Trade estimates for these are 500,000 to 800,000 MT of old crop, and 600,000 to 800,000 MT of new crop. Stats Canada pegged the 2016/17 Canadian canola acreage at 20.02 million acres, up from their March estimate of 19.35 million acres. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.44 1/2, down 6 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.12 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $397.10, up $4.70; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.82, down 29 points.

Corn: The corn market finished the day sharply lower. A wetter outlook for the Midwest and book squaring ahead of tomorrow's USDA report was enough to take the shine off corn. Guesses for acreage tomorrow vary from 91.5 to 94 million acres. The March figure was 93.601 million. The average guess for June 1 US corn stocks sits at 4.52 billion bushels in a Bloomberg survey. Good weekly export sales are expected tomorrow, at 700,000 MT to 1.0 MMT for old crop corn, and from 300,000 to 450,000 MT for new crop. The Arg Ag Min said that corn plantings there might rise 20% next year due to new government rules on exports, the trade think that +30% could be on the cards. Seed merchants say that sales for 2016/17 are already running at around 60-70% versus only 10% this time last year under the old Macri government. South Africa's CEC estimates the corn crop there at 7.16 MMT and 2016/17 imports at 3.8 MMT. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.72 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.77 3/4, down 11 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. In a Bloomberg survey, June 1 US wheat stocks are estimated to be 0.983 billion bushels on average in tomorrow's USDA report. Stats Canada estimated 2016 Canadian all-wheat plantings at 23.18 million acres this morning. That was down from its March estimate of 23.85 million acres, and smaller than the average pre-report trade analyst estimate of 23.4 million acres. Russia said that they had harvested 2.1 MMT of grains so far with average yields at 4.36 MT/ha (3.98 MT/ha in 2015). ProZerno said the country would export 34.8 MMT of grains in 2015/16 rising to 36.7 MMT in 2016/17 - the latter including more than 26 MMT of wheat. Jordan bought 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat at $204.50 C&F for Dec/Jan shipment. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 300-500,000 MT. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.29 1/2, down 14 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.00, down 8 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.06, down 7 1/4 cents.