Chicago Beans And Corn Rally On Heat Worries
13/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher on continued talk of a hot and dry ridge to enter the Midwest from around Jul 20. Dr Cordonnier said that Brazil's 2015/16 soybean ending stocks could fall as low as 0.45 MMT - less than 1 week's worth of supply. It is therefore crucial that planting for 2016/17 begins bang on time on Sept 15 once the compulsory soybean free period ends in Mato Grosso, he said. Any delay could further impact on old crop tightness and leave the Brazilian S&D picture very finely balanced until the 2017/18 season, he suggested. China imported 7.56 MMT of soybeans in June according to customs data. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 400,000 and 600,000 MT on old crop, while new crop sales are estimated to be between 500,000 and 700,000 MT. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.28, up 20 3/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.05 1/4, up 18 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $388.50, up $10.20; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.65, down 6 points.
Corn: The corn market finished the day with strong gains on a dry and hot 6-10 day forecast. All the weather models continue to show high 90’s to low 100’s degree temperatures for areas of Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, Western Iowa up to around July 28th. Right in the middle of corn pollination. "The 6-10 day forecast is ominous for weather stress. Instead of cool temperatures strong heating is predicted ,when a warm ridge of high pressure builds up in the US heartland. The Midwest forecast is drier, as well, especially affecting farms west of the Mississippi Valley," said Martell Crop Projections. US ethanol production reached 1.004 million barrels per day last week, just shy of the all time high and 20,000 bpd up on the previous week. In tomorrow's weekly export sales report the trade is anticipating old crop corn sales of around 350,000 and 550,000 MT, and new crop sales to be between 450,000 and 650,000 MT. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.65 3/4, up 16 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.62, up 9 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed relatively flat. US markets are struggling to find an inherently bullish story of their own, with the ongoing winter wheat harvest throwing up good yields, and ending stocks running at the highest levels since 1987/88. French crop conditions are dropping like a stone however, down 6 points in the good to very good category in each of the last 2 weeks. French wheat wasn't even offered at yesterday's Egyptian tender, but there were plenty of offers from Russia and Ukraine, with the former seemingly content that the government will have removed the export duty on wheat by then. The 2016 Russian grain harvest currently stands at almost 15 MMT and Ukraine's at just under 8 MMT. Yields are up sharply in both locations. The leading French port of Rouen finished 2015/16 exporting a record volume of grain according to customs data. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.07 3/4, unchanged; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02 1/2, unchanged.
