Chicago Markets Mostly Lower - Led By Beans
07/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with big losses again on fund liquidation. Weather models have changed to wetter and cooler. Weak crude oil and the strong dollar added to the bearish tone. Still, August is the key month for determining bean yields, not July, the remaining bulls would point out. Few would therefore say that this weather market is finished with just yet. I'd expect bargain hunting/light consolidation ahead of the weekend to kick in tomorrow. China was reported to have bought 120,000 MT of new crop beans under the daily reporting system, CONAB dropped their Brazilian production estimate from 95.6 MMT to 95.3 MMT. The one day delayed weekly export sales will be reported tomorrow with the trade expecting bean sales of 900,000 MT to 1.25 MMT over both crop years. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.54 1/4, down 52 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.24 3/4, down 48 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $370.00, down $16.00; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 29.73, down 52 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around unchanged. The immediate US weather remains a bearish influence. However, Brazil’s CONAB estimated the second season 2015/16 corn crop at 43.05 MMT, down from the 50.0 MMT previous estimate. The total 2015/16 corn crop was at 69.14 MMT vs. 76.22 MMT previously. That's quite a lot of corn to disappear off the world market all in one go. Weekly US ethanol production was down 19 million barrels/day to 984,000 bpd. MDA CropCast estimated the world corn crop up 4.21 MMT from previously at 961.6 MMT. Israeli private buyers bought 120,000 MT of option origin (beliveed to be Black Sea material) at $169.00-169.50/tonne C&F. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are in the region of 900,000 MT to 1.25 MMT, similar to soybeans. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.35 1/2, down 1/4 cent; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.41 3/4, up 1/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges. MDA CropCast increased their view on the 2016/17 world wheat crop by 13.8 MMT to 744.0 MMT. US all wheat was up 9.77 million bushels to 2.1837 billion bushels. South Korea are tendering for 23,000 MT of US milling wheat for December shipment. Israel bought 85,000 MT of feed wheat at $161.50-165.50/tonne C&F. Deteriorating crop conditions in France keep getting flagged up, but appear outweighed by much better than expected yields out of Russia. The fact that the Russian Ag Min said that they will not consider removing the export duty on wheat until the autumn might temper their export efforts in Q1 of 2016/17 however. That won't be the case in Ukraine though where the harvest is also progressing nicely and yields are much better than a year ago. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 350,000 to 650,000 MT. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.12, down 3 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.96 1/2, down 4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.95 1/4, down 7 cents.
