Nogger's Blog

30/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher. The USDA said that US farmers had planted almost 1.5 million acres more soybeans than the March planting intentions number at 83.70 million acres. Still, the number was slightly below the average trade guess of 83.834 million. Nevertheless, this is a record large soybean area and one that is up 4% on last year. Soybean stocks were 869.92 million bu, which was 38.925 million above the average trade expectation. Weekly export sales were strong at 730,000 MT for old crop and 798,000 MT for 2016/17. Coceral estimated the EU-28 rapeseed crop at 22.00 MMT versus 21.56 MMT previously and 21.74 MMT a year ago. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.75, up 30 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.53 1/4, up 40 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $405.30, up $8.20; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.38, up 56 points.

Corn: The market closed sharply lower again after the USDA estimated 2016 US corn seedings at 94.10 million acres, well above the average trade guess of 92.986 million and up on the 93.6 million estimated in March. This would be the third highest planted acreage in the US since 1944. June 1 stocks came in at 4.72 billion bu, up 6 percent from the year previous and above the trade expectation of 4.528 billion. Weekly export inspections came in at 1.004 MMT - a bit lower than trade forecasts. Coceral estimated the EU-28 corn crop at 62.36 MMT, which that's up 6.6% on last year it is still down slightly on the 63.17 MMT estimated in March. The French crop was pegged at 13.67 MMT, up slightly on 13.13 MMT a year ago. Romania will produced 1 MMT more than in 2016 at 10.2 MMT, they estimate. South Korea's Kocopia tendered for optional origin corn. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.58 3/4, down 14 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.65 1/2, down 12 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market finished mostly a touch higher. The USDA estimated all wheat acres at 50.80 million versus an average trade guess of just under 50 million and a March guess of 49.6 million. That's still down 7 percent from last year though. June 1 stocks totalled at 981 million bu, close to the trade expectations. Weekly export sales were a better than expected 645,300 MT. Coceral forecast the EU-28 soft wheat crop at 148 MMT versus 145.2 MMT previously and 150.3 MMT a year ago. They have barley output at 63.3 MMT versus 59.1 MMT previously and 61.1 MMT in 2015. ABARES said that good rains forecast for Australia between now and October could boost wheat production there past the currently forecast 25.4 MMT. Russia's Ag Min said that they might harvest as much as 110 MMT of grains this year (104.8 MMT in 2015), with wheat accounting for more than 60 MMT of that total. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.31 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.04 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.08 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents.