EU Grains Lower On Better Than Feared Yield Estimates

26/07/16 -- EU grains closed mostly lower as the EU Commission's MARS unit moved to allay fears of wholesale crop downgrades across the continent.

The day ended with benchmark Nov 16 GBP1.35/tonne lower at GBP124.30/tonne. Sep 16 Paris wheat traded down EUR4.25/tonne at EUR166.25/tonne, Aug corn was EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR170.00/tonne and Aug 16 Paris rapeseed was down EUR1.50/tonne at EUR356.50/tonne.

MARS raised their overall EU-28 soft wheat yield estimate from 6.07 MT/ha last month to 6.10 MT/ha, and a 4.6% rise on last year.

They were also up slightly on corn, from 7.35 MT/ha to 7.42 MT/ha, a 1% increase versus 6.93 MT/ha a year ago.

Barley yields were lowered slightly, from 5.01 MT/ha to 4.99 MT/ha (2015: 4.72 MT/ha), along with those for OSR - down from 3.24 MT/ha to 3.22 MT/ha (2015: 3.20 MT/ha).

They downgraded expectations for French wheat yields, but not by that much - lowered 0.9 MT/ha to 7.23 MT/ha.

"The poor conditions observed in late May continued in June with substantial rainfall, exceptionally low global radiation and near-average temperatures. Overly wet conditions led to saturated soils. Consequently, yield forecasts are revised downwards to average levels," they said.

UK wheat yields were seen unchanged from a month ago at 8.09 MT/ha.

"Crop development and biomass accumulation (in the UK) are mainly above average, but pest and disease pressure remain high. The yield forecasts remain close to or slightly above the five-year average," they noted.

OSR yields in France were pegged 8.6% lower than a year ago at 3.26 MT/ha, and those in the UK 2.5% lower at 3.17 MT/ha.

Elsewhere, big crops keep getting bigger. Rusagrotrans said that this year's Russian grain crop could reach 113 MMT - the highest they say since 1990.

Wheat could account for 68.4 MMT of that total (record) and barley 17.8 MMT. Corn production still depends on August weather, but could exceed last year's record 13.2 MMT, they noted.