EU Rapeseed Hits Lowest Since March As Soybeans Tumble

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:50 | Categorized as

06/07/16 -- EU grains finished mostly lightly mixed, although rapeseed took a tumble courtesy of sharply lower soybean prices States-side.

The day ended with Jul 16 London down GBP0.05/tonne at GBP111.75/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR153.75/tonne, Aug corn was also EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR167.50/tonne and Aug 16 rapeseed tumbled EUR4.75/tonne to EUR350.00/tonne.

This was the lowest close for rapeseed since March.

Russia said that they'd cut 1.9 million ha of new crop cereals so far, producing a crop of 8.4 MMT, with yields of 4.32 MT/ha (3.87 MT/ha in 2015).

Wheat has been cut on 1.2 million ha of that, for a crop of 5.3 MMT to date. Barley accounts for another 2.2 MMT off 515k ha.

Confidence is growing that this is going to be a bumper crop for Russia, and thus that they will be very aggressive competition on the export front again in 2016/17.

Russian customs data said that they'd exported 36.89 MMT of grains in 2015/26 (a new record), including 24.08 MMT of wheat.

So far this marketing year (Jul 1-5) exports stand at 220 TMT, including 90 TMT of wheat.

Strategie Grains cut their forecast on French soft wheat yields to 6.98 MT/ha from 7.38 MT/ha, potentially taking the crop down to 36.5 MMT from 38.5 MMT previously and well over 40 MMT a year ago.

The move comes despite French sowings reaching the highest levels since the Second World War this year following incessant rains - especially in the north of the country.

The 2016/17 season is already shaping up to be one where Russia and Ukraine dominate early proceedings, and the EU is left fighting for the scraps. Some of the negative effect of the large downgrade to the French crop will be made up by the unusually large carryover stocks from last season.