Are The US The Only Seller On Beans?

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 10:29 | Categorized as

17/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on strong demand for US product. Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 381,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. They also corrected an Aug 4 announcement for 129,000 MT of corn sold to unknown for 2016/17 to be soybeans. Media reports suggest that 2 of 6 Cargill owned soybean processing plants in Brazil and 2 of 5 Louis Dreyfus facilities are idle due to "the current S&D situation" ie. a lack of beans. Given that Brazil won't even start planting again for new crop until Sep 16 then this situation could continue, if not get worse, for some considerable time. Argentine farmers are said to be reluctant sellers due to currency/inflation considerations. This gives the US a large window of opportunity to market it's record 2016 crop. "Without an expansion in acreage and a normal yield in Brazil the world carryout to use ratio falls to equal the situation of 2012," noted FCStone. Both Brazil and Argentine growers are expected to plant more corn for 2016/17. Name your price America. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $10.30 1/2, up 11 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.16, up 8 3/4 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $336.70, unchanged; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.01, up 63 points.

Corn: The market closed with small gains. Weekly ethanol production tied at the all-time high of 1.029 million barrels per day. Brazil continues to be a buyer and importer of US ethanol as their production has shifted towards sugar and away from bio-fuel. They are a buyer of US corn too as their safrinha crop falls victim to drought and exporters pay the price for being extremely aggressive marketeers earlier in the season, a situation similar to that on beans. Fund money still holds a sizable short position in corn, and is credited for covering in around 8,000 lots opf that short today. The ProFarmer crop tour kicks off next week, traders will be looking to that to see if the USDA's record 175 bu/acre yield estimate released last week holds water. Many are discounting this figure as being too high, at least for now. The Delta continues to receive more rain than it needs, stalling harvest activity there. The 5-day forecast has more modest rainfall in it, but spread over a wider area. Temperatures are expected to moderate in the 6-10 day forecast. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.30 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.39 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed firmer. Russian grain production estimates are creeping ever higher, so much so that analysts are now questioning their ability to safely store a 115-118 MMT crop. Logistics in exporting record volumes in 2016/17 are also being questioned. Meanwhile the EU crop keeps getting smaller with the focus now on Germany, who's DRV yesterday cut production estimates for wheat, barley, corn and OSR citing adverse weather conditions. If Europe hasn't got it to sell, and Russia has problems shipping it then there may be an opportunity for US wheat to make some inroads to North African/Middle Eastern homes later in the season. Russian growers are also said to be disheartened by current low prices and are looking to hold wheat in the hope that things move higher. Winter planting for the 2017 harvest is already underway in both Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine shippers are aggressive with their offerings now, but are likely to be sold out on wheat come the spring. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26, up 2 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.18 1/4, up 7 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.24 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents.