Chicago Beans End Higher Again On Strong Exports
09/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher. Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. That's the tenth day of such sales in a row. The trade will now start positioning itself where it wants to be for Friday's upcoming WASDE report from the USDA. The trade is expecting a rise in 2016 US soybean yields to around 47.5-47.6 bu/acre. There's talk that La Nina is on the way, late autumn or early winter (northern hemisphere). That could mean exceptionally dry planting season for Argentina and Southern Brazil beans. Trade gossip suggests a switching away from beans back into corn there, we shall see. Agroconsult see Brazilian bean plantings up 1.5% for next year. China imported 7.76 MMT of beans in July, up slightly vs. Jun 2014 but 18% lower than a year previously. Year to date imports are still up 3.6% at 46.3 MMT. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.22, up 3 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.88, up 3 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $339.20, up $1.30; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.17, up 24 points.
Corn: The market closed around 2-3 cents lower. US weather models show improving moisture prospects for the ECB and upper WCB in the US. The trade is expecting a figure of around 170.5 bu/acre for US corn yields in Friday's WASDE report. Some private trade estimates are reported to be as high as 175 bu/acre. Conab lowered their estimate for this year's Brazilian corn crop from 69.14 MMT to 68.48 MMT, down 19% on last year's 84.67 MMT. They see 2016/17 exports declining to 20 MMT from 30.17 MMT in 2015/16. This should provide a short to medium-term window of opportunity for US corn on the international market. Agroconsult say that current high prices for Brazilian corn will see growers expand plantings by 6% for the 2016/17 harvest however. China tried to sell 2 MMT of domestic corn stocks (from 2012) but met with insipid demand, selling only 14 TMT. They are importing large volumes of US DDGS as a corn alternative. The Ukraine Ag Min estimate their 2016 corn crop at 24 MMT. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.22 1/4, down 3 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.32 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed around unchanged levels. As ever at this time of year Friday's report is thought likely to be more about corn and beans than wheat, but they've surprised us on that one before. Obviously EU wheat production will be one figure everyone will be looking for given the problems in France this year. Agritel pegged their crop at only 26.68 MMT this year today. The size of EU exports is another imponderable, and who is going to be picking up this business instead. Russia is the obvious candidate, but there's talk of US wheat making it into some traditionally French homes in North Africa this year. Japan are in for 125 TMT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular weekly tender. Wheat prospects in Australia are significantly better than a year ago, say Martell Crop Projections. "Sudden wetness in Eastern Australia may be linked to a weakening El Niño. This may explain recent heavy rainfall in Eastern Australia, particularly New South Wales. As the El Niño steadily weakens, a wet signal from an emerging La Niña emerges. The most productive Australia wheat harvests on record were achieved with a strong La Niña in effect. Very strong La Niña's developed in 2011-12, 2008-09, 1998-99 and 1988-89," they add. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.17, unchanged; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.10, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.07 1/2, unchanged.
