Nogger's Blog

05/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans and meal closed higher on the day but lower for the week. Informa released their latest US crop production and yield estimates, falling between the two stools of the USDA's July numbers and what FCStone gave us earlier in the week. They said production would be 3.958 billion bu with a national average yield of 47.7 bu/acre. The USDA currently line up at 3.88 billion bu and 46.7 bu/acre on yields. The USDA reported export sales of 498,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. That's over 2 MMT sold to China/unknown under the daily reporting system this week alone. It's looking like China is switching demand to the US earlier than usual. Brazil's July soybean exports were down 3 MMT versus July 2015 (and June was down 2 MMT). A larger than anticipated US crop is therefore going to be needed to supply this increased export demand. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.03 3/4, up 13 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.74 1/2, up 17 3/4 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $335.80, up $6.10; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.52, down 2 points. For the week Aug 16 beans were 28 3/4 cents lower, meal was down $14.60 and oil added 17 points.

Corn: The corn market closed firmer on the day but lower for the week. Light consolidation is I guess what you could call today's action. The US harvest is drawing ever-nearer and much of the time for a corn threat is already behind us. Informa came out with a US corn production estimate of 14.694 billion bu on yields of 169.8 bu/acre. FCStone estimated 2016 US corn yields at 175 bu/acre and production at 15.146 billion bushels, both record levels. The USDA were at 168 bu/acre and 14.54 billion bu last month. The weekly commitment of traders report shows managed money short 104,434 contracts in corn futures and options as of Tuesday night. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine 2016 corn harvest is two thirds done at 19.1 MMT. Final production is seen at 28 MMT. FranceAgriMer raised French corn good to very good ratings by one point to 70% (58% a year ago). US July Corn exports totalled 240 million bushels, a record for the month. As with beans the US is seeing a switch in demand from South America earlier than usual. Brazil is now looking to import US corn to make up for a shortfall in it's own safrinha corn production and compensate for it's own early aggressive export pace. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.24 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.34 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents. For the week Sep 16 corn was down 10 1/4 cents and Dec 16 fell 8 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed firmer on the day and the week. Magnitudes were varied across the exchanges. The French Farm Ministry lowered their 2016 yield estimate to 5.57 MT/ha, taking production down to 29.1 MMT. FranceAgriMer lowered good to very good ratings another 5 points today taking them down to 35% versus 77% a year ago. They now have 10% of the crop rated very poor and 28% poor, with 31% average. Harvesting is 62% complete. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has Argentine wheat plantings complete on 92% of the planned 4.3 million ha. Brussels reported the approval of 352 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this past week (down from 413 TMT a week ago), taking the season to date total to 2.58 MMT so far (versus 2.0 MMT a year ago). France picked up 64 TMT worth of this week's export licences. The German wheat harvest is approaching halfway done. The UK wheat harvest is only just beginning. Both look certain to have lower production than last year, although things aren't as bad as they are in France. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.16, up 12 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.11 3/4, up 6 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.04 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents. Sep 16 CBOT wheat was up 8 1/4 cents on the week, KCBT wheat added 3 cents and MGEX was up 1 cent for the week.