Chicago Grains Consolidate
10/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower but off session lows in light consolidation trade. We have the all important USDA report coming up on Friday, and today broke the back of the 10 straight day run of sales reported to China/Unknown for US soybeans by the USDA under the daily reporting system. In short, the bulls didn't get fed, and decided to take some money off the table. A Bloomberg survey shows the trade expecting a national average soybean yield of 47.6 bu/acre. US production is seen somewhere between 3.865 to 4.054 billion bushels. Brazil's real is at a 1 year high versus the US dollar, further ruling out competitive offers out of there, Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are strong at 200,000 to 400,000 MT on old crop and 1.9 to 2.5 MMT on new crop. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.17, down 5 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.82 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $336.20, down $3.00; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.50, up 33 points.
Corn: The corn market closed virtually unchanged. Mexico bought 143,650 MT of corn for new crop delivery under the daily reporting system. A Bloomberg survey has the national average yield at 170.6 bu/acre pencilled in for Friday's report and total production at 14.772 billion bu. The USDA were at 1698 bu/acre and 14.54 billion bu in July. There's no real shortage of world feed grains, but there is a greater emphasis on the US to supply global needs this year, with lower production in South America. Trade expectations for tomorrow's weekly export sales report see corn sales at 1.0 MMT and 1.5 MMT for both marketing years combined. Weekly US ethanol production was up 14,000 barrel/day to 1.018 million barrels/day. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.22 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.33, up 1/2 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher. Traders are still assessing the French situation. Freight reports suggest that Glencore are in the market to cover a 35,000 MT cargo of Romanian wheat into France. Syria bought Russian wheat and Israel purchased optional origin wheat. Ukraine's wheat harvest is almost done for another year at 97% complete. Russia's is yet to reach halfway. Weekly export sales tomorrow are called in the 350,000 MT to 550,000 MT region. Friday's USDA report might bring increased production estimates for the US, Australia and Russia. Europe will doubtless be marked lower. How they balance reduced output (and most likely therefore exports) in Europe with the rest of the world will be of interest. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.21 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.11 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.08 1/2, up 1 cent.
