Chicago Grains Down
02/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower. FCStone released their latest ideas for production and yields this year coming up with a record 4.054 billion bushel crop and average yields at a record 48.8 bu/acre. The USDA currently line up at 3.88 billion bu and 46.7 bu/acre on yields. If FCStone are correct then carryout in 2016/17 could be a lot higher than the currently projected 291 million bu. US weather has adopted a more non-threatening look than it had a week or so ago with decent rains and warm but not exceptionally hot temperatures for much of the Midwest. China bought 252,000 MT of new crop beans as announced under the daily reporting system. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $9.85 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.53, down 8 1/2 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $328.40, down $5.60; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.06, up 31 points.
Corn: The corn market closed narrowly mixed. FCStone estimated 2016 US corn yields at 175 bu/acre and production at 15.146 billion bushels, both record levels. The USDA were at 168 bu/acre and 14.54 billion bu last month. New estimates will be released next week. This could potentially put US carryout at the largest levels since 1987, assuming no increase in demand from the UDSA. Current prices are hence flirting with contract lows. "Summer growing conditions in corn have been mostly favourable, though not ideal. Rainfall has been ample, promoting strong growth and development in corn. Periods of heat have been detrimental," said Martell Crop Projections. The satellite view indicates a favourable Midwest corn crop in the making. Robust vegetation is revealed in the July 28th image shaded deep blue and dark green in the Midwest. Kansas and Nebraska vegetation is significantly better than a year ago, shaded deep blue. However, northern Iowa and Minnesota are mostly green, indicating a less robust crop than last year." Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.24 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.34, down 1/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, but mostly lower. Egypt bought one cargo of Russian wheat in their tender. No US or French product was offered. The price paid for Russian wheat was around $30/tonne below where US offers would have lined up. The US winter wheat harvest is winding down, with just 11% of that crop left to bring in. Yields are good by US standards. The French crop keeps getting downgraded, but production elsewhere is rising. Rusagrotrans today raised their estimate for the Russian wheat crop to a new record 70-71 MMT, which will keep them competitive on the international front right through the whole 2016/17 season. Australia's crop is also now expected to come in around the 27 MMT mark. The jury is still out on Europe, mainly due to France, but also there are questions being raised over the UK where the wheat harvest has yet to begin. Early UK barley yields are disappointing. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.01 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.06 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.00 3/4, up 1/2 cent.
