Nogger's Blog

01/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with some hefty losses. Fund money sits on a sizable shaky long in beans. US weather appears to be largely non-threatening, unless we switch to a too much rain is bad for the crop mood. "Stormy weather continues in the Midwest, the 7-day forecast calling for drenching rain in Iowa, Illinois, eastern Missouri and western Indiana," said Martell Crop Projections. There were some bullish stories around today, but these largely got ignored. The USDA announced 391,000 MT of soybeans sold for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. There are reports of China cancelling 2 cargoes of Brazilian beans due to contamination with "red dioxin" beans. Could this mark a switch to US origin material? Strategie Grains downgraded the EU-28 OSR crop by more than half a million tonnes. Excess rains in France cut their crop by 410 TMT from last month to 4.7 MMT. After the close the USDA raised US crop conditions one point to 72% good to excellent. They said that 54% of the crop is setting pods (44% typically at this time) and the crop is 85% blooming (79% on average). Weekly export inspections were impressive at 671,154 MT. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $9.96, down 36 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.61 1/2, down 41 1/2 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $334.00, down $16.00; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 29.75, down 60 points.

Corn: The market closed around 8 cents lower. August weather has adopted a more benign look to it, and the worst month for corn yields is July, so the market is thinking that another big US corn crop is now entering the home straight. "The drenching rain in July has coincided with the pollination period in corn, boosting the yield potential," said Martell Crop Projections. Weekly export inspections were respectable at 1.144 MMT. Talk continues that safrinha corn supplies in Brazil are tight and that the US can win a larger share of the global export market than has been the recent norm across these next few months. The USDA reported unchanged US corn good to excellent ratings after the close at 76%. They said that 91% of the crop is silking as opposed to 85% typically at this time, and that 30% is at the "dough" stage (25% on average at this time). Ukraine's seaports exported 625.6 TMT of grains last week of which 48.7 TMT was corn. Russia said that of it's accumulated Jul 1-27 grain exports of 1.72 MMT only 18.3 TMT was corn. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.25 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.34 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market ended a wee bit lower. Weekly export inspections of 662,373 MT were up 12.7% from last week and more than twice as much as the weekly total from a year earlier. France is reported to have bought Romanian wheat and possibly Russian material as well to make up a shortfall in this year's domestic crop. ODA put that (soft wheat only) at 28.2 MMT today versus almost 41 MMT a year ago. There are few problems elsewhere though. NAB see the Australian wheat crop at 27.2 MMT versus 26.1 MMT previously. Russia say that they are 38.2% of the way through a wheat harvest that has produced 37.9 MMT so far. Grain exports so far (Jul 1-27) are up 7.4% at 1.72 MMT, of which 73% (1.25 MMT) is wheat. Ukraine's wheat harvest is said to be 84% complete at 21.5 MMT. Ukraine's grain exports via seaports last week were 625.6 TMT of which 358.9 TMT was wheat. The USDA said that the US winter wheat harvest is 89% complete (86% normally). Spring wheat is 10% harvested (9% on average). Spring wheat crop conditions were unchanged on a week ago at 68% good to excellent. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.06, down 1 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.09 1/4, down 1/2 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.00 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents.