Chicago Slide Continues
30/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans extended their run to the downside, ignoring a 126,000 MT sale to unknown for 2016/17 announced by the USDA under the daily reporting system. There's also a Chinese delegation in town which is likely to announce a large "showcase" soybean purchase with prices below $10/bu and the US the most competitive seller in the world right now. Still, the trade is focused on the potential for the 2016 US crop to break all previous records, some are even talking of a bin-busting 50 bu/acre average yield this year (USDA currently 48.9 bu/acre). Indonesia say that 2016 palm oil production there is likely to be 31-32 MMT versus the USDA's current 35 MMT. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $9.65 1/2, down 17 3/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.50 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $313.80, down $5.70; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.81, down 27 points.
Corn: The market closed around 4-6 cents lower, pressing onto fresh contract lifetime lows. September closed at 3.04 which is approaching the 2009 continuation low of 2.96 3/4. Seasonal lows are often set around September/early October for corn and beans. Wheat at 10-year lows remains a negative downwards pull for corn. The trade is not as convinced that this year's corn crop will beat the current USDA forecasts (15.153 billion bushels and 175.1 bpa) as it is for beans. Similar to beans, the US corn offer is the cheapest around right now, so whatever export business is about, it should be relatively easily picked up by US exporters. Will that be enough for a 15 billion bushel crop though? The Ukraine corn harvest is reported to be underway, with Agritel and the USDA forecasting production this year at 26 MMT (23.33 MMT last year). Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.04, down 7 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.15 3/4, down 5 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed at fresh 10 year lows on the continuous chart in both Chicago and Kansas. Egypt released a tender for wheat for October shipment under the new zero tolerance to ergot mandate. The results are expected tomorrow. It will be very interesting to see how many offers it picks up, and what the new stance does to prices compared to last time. They already regularly pay "over the odds" at their tenders compared to other Middle Eastern buyers. Russia are said to be proposing to eliminate their current export tax on wheat. The EU Commission lowered their expectations on this year's wheat crop and export potential to 142 MMT and 26.3 MMT respectively. The USDA are at 147.5 MMT and 27.0 MMT. Jordan bought 50,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat in a tender. Tunisia tendered for 134,000 MT of soft wheat and 75,000 MT of feed barley. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.63 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.96 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.85 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents.
