Nogger's Blog

08/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher. The USDA reported weekly export inspections of 972,001 MT, an impressive number for this time of year. That is up 44% from last week, and more than five times the amount shipped during the same week a year ago. In addition they reported export sales of 246,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. That's the 9th trading session in a row of such sales to China/Unknown, also an impressive statistic for August. US weather is mixed. "Hotter temperatures are predicted in the upcoming week, 3-4 F above normal on the majority of Midwest farms. Strong showers are anticipated in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Most everywhere else in the Midwest less heavy rainfall is expected," say Martell Crop Projections. "Soybeans need rain in August to optimize the yield. The heavier the rainfall the better during the key pod filling stage as wetness increases the size and weight of the beans," they add. After the close the USDA left US soybean crop conditions unchanged at 72% good to excellent (with a 1 point shift into excellent). They said that 91% of the crop is blooming (88% normally) and 69% setting pods (61% typically at this time). The Canadian wheat board said that Canada exported 10.2 MMT of canola last season (+15%). Strategie Grains said that the EU would need to import 3.3 MMT of rapeseed in 2016/17 (+400 TMT from previously) versus 2.86 MMT in 2015/16. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.18 3/4, up 15 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.85, up 10 1/2 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $337.90, up $2.10; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.93, up 41 points.

Corn: Corn closed a touch higher. Weekly export inspections of 1.452 MMT were up nearly 27% from the previous week. The USDA reported export sales of 162,569 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2016/17 marketing year. The situation in Brazil warrants monitoring. Agroconsult estimated Brazil’s drought damaged safrinha crop will lead to 1.5 MMT corn imports by February. The USDA is only factoring in 0.6 MMT for the year at this moment in time. The USDA cut US corn crop conditions two points in the good to excellent category to 74% (70% a year ago). "Vegetation in Midwest crops has deteriorated over the past 4 weeks confirmed by remote satellite. Midwest farmland that was deep blue a month ago indicating a robust crop is now light blue and green . The decline in vegetation is particularly noticeable in Iowa and Minnesota. The patchy yellow and red in eastern Indiana, Michigan and Ohio indicates more severe vegetative stress. Persistent heat and humidity contributed to the downturn in corn. Nights were particularly warm and humid, detrimental for crop development," said Martell Crop Projections. The USDA have 97% of the US crop at the silking stage versus 94% typically at this time, Corn at the dough stage is 53% against 42% on average, The crop is 9% dented (12% on average). Ukraine said that it had exported 2.7 MMT of grains so far this year, of which 438 TMT was corn. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.25 1/4, up 1 cent; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.34 3/4, up 1/2 cent.

Wheat: Wheat closed narrowly mixed across the three exchanges. Weekly export inspections were only 376,407 MT, just over half the amount reported a week earlier. Not very inspiring. Canada said that they'd exported 40.4 MMT of grains and oilseeds in 2015/16, a 2% rise versus the previous season. Wheat exports were down 7% however at 16.4 MMT faced with strong competition from Europe and the Black Sea. Ukraine said that they'd exported 2.7 MMT of grains in 2016/17 so far, of which 945 TMT was wheat and 1.3 MMT was barley. Russia said that they'd exported 2.19 MMT of grains in the same period (-4.4% in a year ago) of which 1.68 MMT was wheat and 465 TMT was barley. The Russian Ag Min said that the country would produce at least 110 MMT of grains this year. That looks a very safe bet as they've already harvested more than 56 MMT off only 31.5% of the planned area. Planting of winter grains for the 2017 harvest are said to now already be underway in the south of the country. Ukraine's early grains harvest is 93% done at 35 MMT, including 24.4 MMT of wheat off 93% of plan. The USDA said that the 2016 US winter wheat harvest was 94% done (91% typically at this time) and that spring wheat harvesting is 30% complete (18% on average). They left spring wheat crop conditions unchanged at 68% good to excellent. The USDA release their latest world S&D numbers on Friday. The trade will be interested to see what it has to say with regards to European production, exports and stocks this year. These will also have an impact on shipments and carryout elsewhere around the world. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.17, up 1 cent; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.09 3/4, down 2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.07 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents.