Chicago Wheat Slumps To 10-Year Lows
29/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans stumbled lower despite weekly export inspections of a robust 921,137 MT and the USDA announcing a 393,000 MT sale of US soybeans to unknown destinations for 2016/17 this morning under the daily reporting system. The trade noted the tendency for ProFarmer to be below the USDA final production number in 10 of the last 14 years. On Friday they gave us 49.3 bpa and a 4.093 billion bushel crop. The USDA were at 48.9 bpa and estimated production at 4.060 billion bushels earlier this month. The trade thinks the crop is therefore getting larger. The USDA didn't do that notion any harm by raising the proportion of the crop rated good to excellent by 1 point after the close to 73%. They said that 94% of the crop is setting pods (92% typically) and that 5% of the crop is dropping leaves (in line with the 5-year average). Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $9.83 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.64 1/4, down 3 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $319.50, down $1.70; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.81, down 14 points.
Corn: Corn closed lower, with most contracts setting new life of contract lows. Weakness in wheat didn't help. The notion that big crops get bigger is also weighing. Friday's data shows ProFarmer projecting 14.728 billion bushels of production with a 170.2 bpa national average yield. The USDA gave us 15.153 billion bushels and 175.1 bpa earlier this month. Today they held steady with crop ratings, saying that 75% of the crop is rated good to excellent. They have 92% of the crop at the dough stage (87% typically), 60% of the crop dented (52% normally at this time) and say that 9% of the crop is mature (11% on average). Weekly export inspections were strong at 1.422 MMT, but the trade chose to ignore that point. On the weather front "it appears the tropical storm is going to stay east of the areas in the center Gulf, would help take some of the pressure off the harvest in that region," said Benson Quinn. Ukraine reported that it had shipped out 478 TMT of corn so far this season. Agritel forecast production in 2016 at 26 MMT. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.11 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.20 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed with double digit losses in Chicago an Kansas. Chicago wheat is now trading at 10-year lows. Harvest pressure amid bumper global production just about everywhere bar France is the reason. Weekly export inspection of 511,965 MT were down 5% on last week and 18% below the same week a year ago. The USDA reported the 2016 US spring wheat harvest at 81% complete versus only 62% normally at this time. Egypt confused the market by again re-visiting the ergot issue and again deciding on a zero tolerance level for all imports. This caused consternation the last time they did this, with offers at their tenders drying up to a trickle. It might also suggest Russian/Black Sea wheat may have to search a bit harder for some homes. Iran reported a wheat crop of 14 MMT versus 11.5 MMT a year ago. The German Ag Ministry reported their crop at 24.6 MMT, down 7.5% on a year ago. FranceAgriMer reported than only 28% of their harvest has a specific weight of over 76 kg/hl. Apart from that hagberg and protein levels are pretty good. Russian wheat exports inexplicably fell back to only 200 TMT last week. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.70 1/2, down 13 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.74 1/4, down 15 1/2 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.88 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents.
