Nogger's Blog

22/08/16 -- EU grains finished mostly lower on the day amidst a general lack of fresh news. The pound was a bit firmer today, pressuring London wheat.

The day ended with Nov 16 London down GBP1.50/tonne at GBP130.50/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.75/tonne lower at EUR159.00/tonne, Nov 16 corn was down EUR1.00/tonne at EUR165.75/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed was unchanged at EUR378.00/tonne.

MARS released their latest EU-28 crop yield forecasts, dropping soft wheat from 5.85 MT/ha to 5.63 MT/ha, some 3.9% down on last year but still slightly above the 5-year average.

"This is mostly due to yield estimates for soft wheat in France being lowered by 11% compared to the July forecast due to knock-on effects of large rainfall amounts, low radiation and consequent high disease pressure during late May and June," they said.

Corn yields were also lowered from 7.42 MT/ha to 7.23 MT/ha. "Exceptionally high maize yields are forecast for Hungary (+29.6% above the five-year average) but the forecast was lowered in Bulgaria and Romania where dry conditions compromised the maize yield potential," they added.

Private forecasts see the French corn crop at around 13.0-13.5 MMT this year, similar to last year. Germany's crop is seen down 7% and Romania's 15% lower.

This will be compensated for however by the sharp rise in Hungary already noted, plus a 33% jump in Polish output.

MARS forecast UK wheat yields at 8.08 MT/ha, down a smidgen from last month and 10% lower year-on-year. The HGCA currently see them at 7.8-8.0 MT/ha, but things could improve as the harvest progresses in the north.

The Russian grain harvest now stands at 80.7 MMT, of which wheat accounts for 57.5 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry there.

APK Inform say that Russian grain exports via seaports fell to 406.8 TMT last week (715.6 TMT the previous week), including 393.8 TMT of wheat.

Ukraine's seaports exported 647.7 TMT of grains last week (660.1 TMT the previous week), including 499.5 TMT of wheat, they add.