Nogger's Blog

31/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower. The USDA announced sales of 187,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Reuters reported that the Chinese delegation in town to sign a "showcase" deal to import a large quantity of US soybeans may sign a deal for around 4 MMT. US beans are attractive with prices below $10/bu and Brazil out of the market. Dr Cordonnier reported that Brazil may need to import soybeans and meal as well as US corn this year having aggressively sold their new crop at favourable rates earlier in the year when the Brazilian real was much weaker than it is currently. The trade prefers to focus on US soybeans heading into harvest in the best condition since 1989. Weekly export sales for beans tomorrow are expected to be in the region of 1.1-1.6 MMT. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $9.60, down 5 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.43, down 7 3/4 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $312.20, down $1.60; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.47, down 26 points.

Corn: The corn market closed narrowly mixed. The front month September contract inched closer to the 2009 low of $2.96 3/4. The USDA announced the sale of 275,000 MT of US corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Weekly ethanol production came in down 5,000 on last week but still large at 1.023 million barrels per day. Weather forecasts for the Deep South and Mississippi Delta region which should enable harvest activity to pick up a bit there. The Brazilian Minister of Agriculture has set in motion emergency measures that would allow up to 1.5 MMT of previously prohibited GMO corn from the United States to enter Brazil as they run short of supplies following a poor safrihna crop and over-aggressive early season exporting, says Dr Cordonnier. Ukraine and Russia have begun harvesting small volumes of their 2016 corn harvests. Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected in the region of 1 MMT. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.01 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.15 1/2, down 1/4 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. The USDA announced that US exporters had sold 138,000 MT of hard red winter wheat for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. After changing to a zero tolerance on ergot Egypt's GASC picked up just the one offer at their tender and passed on it. Tunisia booked 50,000 MT of wheat and 25,000 MT of feed barley in their tender, both optional origin for Nov/Dec delivery. Indonesia, the world's second largest wheat importer, shipped in 5.69 MMT of the grain in the first half of 2016, a sharp 57.5% increase on the same period a year ago, report Reuters. The top supplier was Australia (although their market share was reduced by almost half to 36.3%), followed by Ukraine (14.9%), Canada (15.2%) and the US (7%). It's possible that Indonesia could overtake Egypt as the world's largest wheat buyer before too long. It speaks volumes for dollar strength that Ukraine is able to pick up double the volume of this business than the US. Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected to be around 500 TMT. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.61, down 2 1/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.71 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.85 3/4, down 5 cents.