Chicago Grains Closing Comments - Thursday
15/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher. Weekly export sales of 1,018,600 MT for 2016/17 were mostly for China (641,700 MT). Trade estimates had been for sales of 900,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. Exports of 999,800 MT were again mainly to China (715,600 MT). In addition we had sales of 110,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year announced under the daily reporting system. Meal export sales were 133,900 MT, in line with trade ideas of 80,000 MT to 180,000 MT. The NOPA August crush was well below trade expectations at 131.8 million bushel versus trade estimates of 136.2 million. The trade is conscious that the market often puts in a seasonal low around now (late September/very early October). Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.50 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.55 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $308.60, up $1.50; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.04, up 42 points.
Corn: Corn closed lower. Weekly export sales of 703,500 MT for 2016/17 were nothing to write home about. Trade ideas were for sales of 800 TMT to 1.1 MMT so these were a little disappointing. Exports of 1,128,500 MT were also reported. "Traders now expecting a slow grind lower to retest previous lows and stimulate more demand," said FCStone. The recent front month closing low was 3.01 1/2. Harvest pressure looms. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimate Argentine new crop corn plantings at 5.7 million ha, up "only" 18% on last year (many others are in the 20-25% or more region due to a return to more normal crop rotation following the government's switch to zero export duties on corn). Strategie Grains cut their view on this year's EU corn crop by 1.3 MMT to 59.3 MMT. Good ethanol profitability is supporting end user bids. Production was back up above 1 million barrels/day yesterday. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.30, down 1 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.40 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower. Weekly export sales of 402,200 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. In addition, there were net sales reductions of 7,000 MT reported for the Philippines for 2017/18. That said, exports of 708,500 MT were up 12 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. US wheat could really do with a pick up in export demand. What might help is Strategie Grains estimating that only 59% of this year's crop makes milling standard as opposed to an estimated 66% a month ago and 71% last year. They cut their EU-28 soft wheat production forecast to 136.5 MMT and estimated exports at only 23.7 MMT. FranceAgriMer said that the average specific weight of this year's French wheat crop is only 73 kg/hl. Below the standard required by millers, exporters and futures stores. Russia's export duty on wheat is reset to zero as from today. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.99 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.16, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.91 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents.
