Nogger's Blog

02/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans settled higher on the day, but lower for the week. Pre-weekend consolidation maybe had something to do with today's price action. Certainly the belief that US soybean yields will break all previous records and come in above the USDA's current 48.9 bu/acre estimate haven't gone away Today we had Commodity Weather Group forecasting an average yield of 50.1 bu/acre. Informa gave us 49.5 bu/acre. The flip side of this record supply is current very strong demand for US beans, although there were no sales announced today under the daily reporting system. The weekly Commitment of Traders report sees fund money net long 75,888 lots from 111,722 a week ago as of Tuesday night. China sold 119,000 MT of the 603,000 MT of reserve soybeans offered up at auction today. Sep 16 Soybeans closed at $9.68 1/2, up 9 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans closed at $9.52 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal closed at $313.70, up $0.60; Sep 16 Soybean Oil closed at 32.66, up 46 points. For the week that puts nearby beans down 22 1/4 cents, with meal $7.50 lower and oil down 29 points.

Corn: The market closed around 5 cents higher on the day and with nominal gains for the week. The front month contract made it to $3.01 this week, the lowest on the continuous chart since 2009. Todays's gains were probably consolidation ahead of the long weekend (Monday is Labor Day in the US). Informa today pegged US corn yields at 174.8 bu/acre, slightly below the USDA's 175.1 bu/acre, but at the upper end of private trade forecasts. China sold 595,355 MT of it's corn reserves offered up at auction. The weekly Commitment of Traders report sees fund money net short of 162,503 contracts as of Tuesday night. French corn crop conditions continue to decline, down 3 points to 60% good to very good, said FranceAgriMer. Small volumes (1 or 2%) of new crop corn have been harvested so far in Russia and Ukraine. The US harvest in the Delta/Deep South struggles on under wet conditions. Sep 16 Corn closed at $3.16 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.28 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents. For the week Sep 16 was up 1/4 cents and Dec 16 rose 3 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on the day and mixed for the week. Nidera said that the Australian wheat crop could beat the 2011/12 record 29.6 MMT. Argentine wheat conditions are improving under good weather to 50% good and 13% excellent, said the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Plantings there this year are seen almost 20% higher at 4.3 million ha. There's talk of India needing to import anywhere from 3 MMT to as much as 5 or 6 MMT of wheat in 2016/17, almost as much as when they were last a major importer and world wheat prices rose 50% in 2006/07. They booked 52,000 MT of Ukraine milling wheat today. The Indian government caused a stir recently by dropping the volume of wheat that each flour mill can buy from government reserves each month from 5,000 MT to 500 MT, although this was subsequently raised to 2,000 MT after millers protested. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.73 1/4, up 5 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.86 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.96 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat 10 1/4 cents lower, with Kansas down 3 1/4 cents and Minneapolis up 3 3/4 cents.