Chicago Grains End Lower Despite Strong Soybean/Corn Export Sales
28/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower. The move came despite the USDA reporting sales of 133,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 211,171 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown, both for 2016/17, under the daily reporting system. So, demand is good at these near 5-month lows. The trade is looking for this to be backed up by weekly export sales of 1.0 and 1.4 MMT for beans tomorrow. Then all eyes will be on Friday's quarterly stocks report, with old crop Sep 1 bean inventories expected to come in around the 200 million bushel mark. Palm oil futures in Malaysia were lower overnight. Northern areas of Brazil remain very dry. Things are better in the south. Argentina is cold and dry. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.45 1/2, down 7 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.52, down 6 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $299.70, up $0.40; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.64, down 48 points.
Corn: Corn closed lower despite the USDA announcing a monster sale of 1,577,340 MT of US corn for delivery to Mexico under the daily reporting system. Of the total 1,036,320 MT is for delivery during the 2016/17 marketing year and 541,020 MT is for delivery during the 2017/18 marketing year. The US Energy Dept reported ethanol production up 8,000 barrels per day to 989,000 bpd last week. The average trade guess for Friday's USDA Sep 1 corn stocks figure is 1.754 billion bushels. Weekly export sales are forecast around 0.5 to 1.0 MMT. Safras reported Brazilian full season corn planting at 16% complete versus 21% typically at this time. Argentina have taken up the export baton from Brazil and shipped out a record 4 MMT of corn in August (versus only 1.54 MMT a year previously). South Korea's Kocopia were reported to have purchased 55,000 MT of US corn for Jan shipment in a tender. China are reported to have added a 10.7% anti-subsidy tariff to US DDGs imports. That's on top of the recently introduced 33.8% import duty. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.29 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.39, down 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed. The average trade guess for Friday's Sep 1 stocks report is a large 2.438 billion bushels. The market is hoping that the US can pick up some export interest by playing the quality card that seems to be lacking from the hands of other global exporting nations this year. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 400,000 MT and 650,000 MT for wheat. Trade gossip suggests that a problem might be looming for Australian wheat just prior to harvesting, where it's forecast to see temperatures dip below freezing in the most productive west of the country, whilst the east picks up heavy rain. The quality of the Canadian crop is also rumoured to be subpar, leading to an export demand shifting stateside, said FCStone. There's talk too that Russia's crop might be setting production records this year, but that the quality of that too is lower than normal. Argentina reported that it had exported 7.35 MMT of wheat Jan/Aug, double the volume shipped out in the same period in 2015. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03 1/4, down 3/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21 1/4, up 2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.08 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents.
