Chicago Grains End Mixed, Beans Weak On Bumper Yield Reports
21/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower despite the USDA announcing export sales of 364,000 MT of US beans for 2016/17 to a combination of China, Taiwan and Unknown under the daily reporting system. Those sales won’t show up until next weeks Export Sales report. Trade estimates for tomorrow's sales are around 1 MMT for beans. Reports of much better than expected yields coming in from early harvesting US soybean growers overshadowed that. The market is now thinking that the USDA's record 50.6 bu/acre yield projection might actually be too low. Some of today's losses may have been linked to unwinding of long beans/short corn/wheat spreads. Nov 16 Soybeans closed at $9.75 1/2, down 14 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $9.81, down 13 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal closed at $308.70, down $4.40; Oct 16 Soybean Oil closed at 33.40, down 43 points.
Corn: The market closed with just nominal losses. Some of the unwinding of spreads may have helped corn today. Weekly US ethanol production was placed at 981,000 barrels/day last week, down from 1,004,000 bpd the previous week. Lanworth estimated US 2016 corn yields at 168.5 bu/acre, well below the USDA's 174.4 bu/acre figure. Corn planting in Brazil's is making rapid progress with Parana state now 19% done versus only 4% complete a week ago. Hungary is on the way to harvesting a record 8 MMT of corn, according to a report on Reuters. Russia's IKAR raised their estimate for this year's corn harvest there from 14.0 MMT to 14.5 MMT (record), based on better than expected early yields. Harvesting of that crop is 17.5% done so far at 2.7 MMT, with yields averaging 5.27 MT/ha versus 5.06 MT/ha a year ago. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report on corn are 750 TMT to 1.1 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.40, down 1/2 cent; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.50, down 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed a touch higher. The USDA reported the sale of 145,000 MT of hard red winter wheat for delivery to Morocco during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Reuters report that in fact they purchased 235,000 MT under a special quota deal between the two countries. Egypt rescinded their zero tolerance to ergot stance and immediately tendered for wheat for Oct 21-31 shipment under their old terms of 0.05% tolerance. The results are expected tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how may offers get put up. In Russia, wheat harvesting is 91.2% complete at 72.7 MMT. Barley adds a further 18.4 MMT (93.4%) to the mix. "The 5 day forecast has light rains for the southern plains through Saturday with a moderate to heavy system on Sunday. The 6-10 forecast continues the wet pattern for the Southern Plains during planting season," said FCStone. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are modest at 350-550,000 MT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.07 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.22 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.94 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents.
