Chicago Grains Rally To End Week, But Still End Lower Vs Last Friday
16/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on talk of a rain delayed US harvest. "Weather forecasts are wet weather to predominate over the US Midwest next few weeks, which threatens to delay the harvest, at a time when the new crop will soon be needed to meet heavy export demand," said Agrimoney. Central and Northern Brazil remains dry delaying the start of planting for their 2017 crop. " The USDA is forecasting a near 2% expansion in acreage with a yield the 3rd highest in 15 years. A 5 year average yield would cut Brazil’s production 3 MMT and an unchanged acreage would cut an addition 1 MMT from production. It would fall on the US to make up the difference," said FCStone. Fund buying in beans was estimated at 8-10,000 lots today. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.66, up 15 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.71 1/4, up 15 1/2 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $313.70, up $5.10; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.98, down 6 points. For the week Nov 16 beans were still down 14 1/4 cents.
Corn: The market closed around 7 cents higher on wet weather worries. Prices were still lower for the week overall though. "As well as delaying the harvest, the rain is raising the risk of disease in the crop," noted Agrimoney. "Diplodia is a common topic with anecdotal reports coming from the early harvest running 10 to 30% damage," said FCStone. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated the recently finished Argentine 2015/16 corn crop at 28 MMT, up 1.7 MMT on last year on a planted area of 3.6 million ha. They say that planting for the 2016/17 crop is now underway in some areas and expect plantings to rise to 4.5 million ha due to recent government changes to export taxes. Brazilian analyst Safras estimate the 2016/17 Brazil corn crop at 92.3 MMT vs 70.75 MMT for 2015/16 on a significant jump in planted acres due to much higher domestic prices and a return to more normal crop rotational methods. FranceAgriMer reported that French corn crop conditions declined again this week, but this time by only the one point in the good to very good category to 54%. Harvesting of that crop has yet to begin. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.37, up 7 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.47 1/4, up 7 cents. For the week Dec 16 corn was still down 4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher. Egypt tendered for wheat but nobody offered due to the zero tolerance stance on ergot. There's talk that despite expecting their second largest crop ever, Australia's wheat harvest (normally Oct/Dec) could see quality damage due to the developing La Nina. "The premium of futures in hard winter wheat to those in lower-protein soft wheat hit a fresh five-month top, as US official forecast an "unusually high" spread thanks to quality setbacks in the world harvest," noted Agrimoney. "The quality of wheat in 2016-17 is likely to be much lower than the average of recent years, and last year as well," the USDA said in a report. Strategie Grains yesterday estimated the proportion of EU wheat destined only for the feed bin to rise from 29% to 41% this year. There's some talk also that the quality of this year's apparently bumper Russian wheat crop is not as good as in normal years. Russia has currently harvested 71.2 MMT of wheat off 87.8% of the planned area, along with 18.2 MMT of barley (92.3% harvested). Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.17 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.92 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents.
