Chicago Grains Rise, Beans See Strong Export Demand
07/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with decent gains. The USDA announced 220,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 264,000 MT for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. Brazil's exports are dropping off. Jun/Aug bean exports were 12.54 MMT vs 17.71 MMT a year ago. Argentine exports Jun/Aug are 4.26 MMT vs 4 MMT a year previously. Linn Group forecast US yields of 49.6 bu/acre and production at 4.17 billion bushels (USDA currently 48.9 bu/acre and 4.060 billion bushels). Now that the old crop season has ended the trade is thinking that 2015/16 exports could top 1,940 million bushels vs. the USDA estimate of 1,880 million, said Benson Quinn. The USDA is forecasting 2016/17 exports at 1,950 million, yet the current pace of new crop sales is 40% above last year’s pace to date, they note. This suggests that new crop exports could also be raised in the next WASDE report due Monday. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $9.91 3/4, up 17 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.75 1/2, up 15 3/4 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $323.80, up $6.70; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.81, up 5 points.
Corn: Corn closed higher. Linn Group forecast US 2016 corn yields of 171.5 bu/acre and production at 14.88 billion bushels (the USDA are at 175.1 bu/acre and 15.153 billion bushels). The USDA's Good to excellent ratings for this year's corn crop are in the top 5 highest of the last 30 years, said FCStone. The US attache to Mexico lowered their estimate of the corn crop to 23.5 MMT (USDA 24.5 MMT). The trade is expecting the USDA to lower Brazil's 2015/16 corn crop from the current 68.5 MMT to maybe 67.0-67.5 MMT on Monday. Production in 2016/17 is expected to be much higher though. The Russian and Ukraine new crop corn harvests are in their very early days (1-2% complete) and progressing well under warm and dry conditions. Ukraine said that it had exported 575 TMT of corn so far this season. Exports will pick up soon as the harvest develops and wheat and barley shipments die down. The usual weekly ethanol production and stocks data from the US Energy Dept are delayed a day due to Monday's Labor Day holiday. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.21, up 4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.33 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed a touch firm on bargain-hunting as prices hover just above 10-year lows. The trade is hoping that there may just be a chance of US wheat picking up some export business into Morocco and Algeria in their tenders with French wheat seemingly out of the market. Russia's harvest stands at nearly 98 MMT off a little over 75% of the planned area (wheat accounts for 67.5 MMT of that total). Ukraine said that it had exported 7.21 MMT of grains so far this season, of which 4.2 MMT was wheat. Egypt were reported to have rejected 63,000 MT of Russian wheat due to the presence of ergot under their new zero tolerance rules. Exactly where this leaves them at their next tender remains to be seen. Stats Canada reported that total Canadian wheat stocks are down 27% from a year ago at 5.2 MMT. This was above average trade expectations. Warm and dry conditions are seen delaying winter wheat planting in Ukraine. Wheat harvesting in Europe is winding down and plantings there will soon be underway too. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.75 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.84 3/4, up 3/4 cent; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.91 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents.
