Nogger's Blog

23/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower to end the week. Continued anecdotal reports of big yields and the outlook for drier weather ahead weighed on the market. "Yield reports though are trumping any weather delays with 60 and 70 bushels yields being bandied about from MO to IA to western MN," said Benson Quinn. Palm oil was lower, and crude sharply weaker. Add in a firmer US dollar and there was little bullish news to end the week. Brazil's Mato Grosso has started soybean planting, so too has Parana where they are 3% done. Coceral estimated the EU-28 rapeseed crop at under 20 MMT compared to 22.3 MMT a year ago. The USDA are at 20 MMT, with consumption at almost 24 MMT. The weekly Commitment of Traders Report showed managed money increasing their net long position by 11,444 contracts for the week ending Tuesday night. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.55, down 21 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.61, down 21 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $303.30, down $4.60; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.31, down 65 points. Versus last Friday beans were 11 cents lower, meal was down $10.40 and oil was up 133 points.

Corn: Corn closed fractionally lower on the day and for the week. Harvest pressure is a negative, with an estimated 20% of the US crop thought likely to have been cut by Sunday night. Still, unlike beans, anecdotal reports from the field on corn are of lower yields than last year. As well as talk of lower yields there's also trade gossip that the wet weather has cause quite a few disease problems this year. That seems to be limiting downside for now. So too does the size of the short held by managed money, placed at -161,592 net contracts as of Tuesday night. One talking point today was the decision by China to place a 33% anti dumping levy on US DDGS imports as they struggle to dispose of their own domestic government-owned corn mountain. Coceral pegged EU-28 corn output 1 MMT down from June, but 3 MMT above last year, at 61 MMT. In Brazil Parana state is said to be 34% planted on corn. The market is drifting along directionless for now. Next Friday, the USDA release their quarterly stocks report that could provide some direction to the market. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 1/2, down 1/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.46 1/4, down 1/2 cent. For the week Dec 16 was 1/2 cent lower and Mar 17 was down a cent.

Wheat: Wheat closed little changed on the day but higher for the week. The Indian government lowered its wheat import tax to 10% from 25% as part of an effort to curb food price inflation. Some are forecasting that this could trigger imports of up to 5 MMT this season. The USDA are currently at 2 MMT. Australian and Black Sea wheat are likely to be the main beneficiaries. Ukraine wheat has been scoring on price recently. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentine wheat is 49% excellent and 35% good out of a planted area of 4.3 million ha this year. Egypt were reported to have bought 240 TMT of Russian wheat in their latest tender, paying around $179/tonne FOB, or $187/tonne C&F. Coceral estimated the EU-28 soft wheat crop at 134 MMT, some 14 MMT less than their June forecast and 18 MMT below last year's record. Barley production in Europe is now seen at 59 MMT versus 61 MMT last year. That's 4 MMT below their June estimate. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04 3/4, down 3/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21 1/2, up 3/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.03 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was up 1 1/2 cents, Kansas was 4 1/4 cents higher and Minneapolis was up 11 cents.