Chicago Beans Test Resistance At $10/Bushel, Corn And Wheat Falter
24/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, but off session highs. Very strong weekly export inspections - 2.739 MMT - were the 4th largest week ever and the largest for a single week since Nov 2014. Accumulative inspections are now 10.45 MMT versus 9.44 MMT for same period last year. Nov 16 beans hit $9.99 3/4 cents, but hit resistance at $10 and couldn't break through, falling back to close at $9.92. Dr Cordonnier said that Argentine growers may prefer to store and carry a proportion of their 2017 crop all the way into 2018 to take advantage of the new then relaxation of the export duty, which comes down at the rate of 0.5% per month starting Jan 2018. What's left of the Canadian canola harvest is stuck out in the fields under snow. Malaysian palm oil hit the highest since Mar 2014 on more production worries. China reported that they had imported 7.19 MMT of beans in September, which finishes off the Oct15/Sep16 marketing year at a record 83.22 MMT. Brazil's exports to China last month were down 25%, providing a window of opportunity for the US. After the close the USDA reported this year's US soybean harvest at 76% complete, up from 62% a week ago and exactly in line with the 5-year average. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.92, up 9 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.02 1/4, up 10 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $307.30, up $0.80; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.99, up 87 points.
Corn: Corn closed lower. Unlike beans corn didn't have support from bumper weekly export inspections. These came in at only 541,527 MT - down 38% from last week. This was possibly due to the strong demand for US soybean exports at the ports squeezing out corn. "Friday’s CFTC report showed the managed money crowd was stealthier in covering their large corn short than the trade had estimated (last week). With only a 50K net short the motivation to cover their position without a new bullish fundamental story evaporated and the sheer size of the current crop weighed on values," said FCStone. US weather forecasts predict rain for the corn belt Tues/Weds, followed by dryness and warmer than normal temperatures for most of the Midwest. The USDA pegged this year's US corn harvest at 61% complete versus 46% a week ago and 62% on average at this time. Black Sea corn exports are picking up as their harvest progresses. Ukraine's corn harvest is now past halfway done (51% complete). Their seaports exported 320 TMT of corn last week, according to APK Inform. Russia exported 183 TMT of corn last week, according to customs data. Russia's 2016/17 corn exports to date are 717 TMT. Chinese customs data shows that their corn imports in September were negligible. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58, down 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower. Weekly export inspections of just 244,331 MT set the tone, down more than 50% from last week. Inspections a year ago were 316 TMT. China imported 431 TMT of wheat last month versus 395 TMT a year ago. Australia was the largest supplier with 192 TMT. The USDA's FAS in Tokyo forecast Japan's wheat import needs at 5.8 MMT this season versus 5.7 MMT a year previously. Lanworth forecast a colder than normal US winter, with widespread cold 2-4F below normal across the Central US, However, above normal snowfall should mitigate any wheat losses due to winterkill, they said. The USDA said that US winter wheat planting for the 2017 harvest was 79% done versus 72% a week ago and 82% on average at this time. Emergence is 60% versus 47% a week ago and 58% for the 5-year average. In their first crop condition report of the season they placed 59% of the crop in good to excellent condition versus 47% a year ago. The Black Sea countries continue to export wheat at a brisk pace. Ukraine's seaports shipped out 544 TMT of wheat last week, and Russia's 441 TMT. Egypt's GASC announced a late tender for wheat for Dec 1-10 shipment. Russia and Romania have been the most successful bidders lately. Results are expected late tomorrow afternoon. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.02 1/2, down 12 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.12 1/2, down 9 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.24 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents.
