Chicago Cautious Ahead Of USDA Report

10/10/10 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed narrowly mixed. The trade is cautious ahead of Wednesday's USDA report, expecting a yield increase from last month's already record 50.6 bu/acre, but not sure by how much. The average trade guess is 51.5 bu/acre, but few would be surprised to see a higher number. The usual Monday crop progress report is delayed a day to tomorrow due to the Coumbus Day holiday. Trade ideas are for beans to be 50% harvested by now. China were back from their week-long holiday but there were no sales announced under the daily reporting system. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.54 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.61 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $296.30, down $2.30; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.62, up 51 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with net gains of 3-4 cents. Unlike beans, the trade is anticipating lower yields in Wednesday's USDA report, with the average trade guess coming in around 173.4 bu/acre versus the USDA's September figure of 174.4 bu/acre. Funds still hold a large short position in corn and will be nervous heading into this report. As well as the usual crop progress report being delayed (corn harvesting is expected to be 40 t0 45% complete), tomorrow also brings the one-day delayed export inspections numbers. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.43 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.53 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents. 
Wheat: The wheat market closed with solid gains on short-covering heading into Wednesday's USDA report. Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed spec money holding a record large short in Chicago wheat (151,417 contracts) as of Tuesday night. The trade is looking for US ending stocks of 1.050 and 1.400 billion bushels on Wednesday, with global carryout seen at 246 to 252.70 MMT. The USDA’s Attache to India estimates the country will import 3 MMT of wheat in 2016 vs the USDA's own official 2 MMT forecast. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03 3/4, up 9 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.07, up 4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.22 1/4, up 1/4 cent.