Chicago Grains Close - Friday
28/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day, but higher for the week. Today's action may have been consolidation after a week of decent gains. Some of today's losses may also be attributable to the fact that first notice day for the November soybean contract is Monday, so spec longs needed to get out today or risk taking delivery. "Anxiety in the trade if the recent price support in soybeans can be sustained if the buying out of China slows and a lack of meaningful South American weather story can develop over the next three months," said Water Street Solutions. Consider that China were responsible for 89% of yesterday's stellar weekly export sales total of 2.045 MMT, and 81% of yesterday's weekly export total of 2.8 MMT. Where on earth would we be without China? But, they are here, and you could say where on earth would they be without record US production this year. Still, US growers probably regard current cash soybean prices offer a better return than those for corn. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found traders bullish on beans for the first time in two months - Bullish: 8, Bearish: 5, Neutral: 6. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.01 1/4, down 13 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.12, down 13 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $317.50, down $10.10; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.41, up 30 points. For the week nearby beans were still 18 1/4 cents higher, with meal up $11.00 and oil up 29 points.
Corn: The market closed a little lower on the day, but still a touch higher for the week. The US corn harvest is estimated to be 71-75% completed in Monday's harvest progress report from the USDA. That means that attention now turns to South America. Wet conditions in Argentina offer some underlying support. Argentina corn planting progress is estimated to be 36% complete compared to 33% last year and 39% on average. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has estimated corn acres to be up 27% from last year at 4.9 million. hectares. The IGC yesterday estimated Brazil's 2017 corn crop at 83.7 MMT, a whopping 25% increase on this year's output. Still, US growers are reluctant sellers on corn at levels where they are now, although the capacity to hold this record harvest without selling it is quickly approaching its limit, said FCStone. They are out Tuesday with their latest November production estimates, around a week ahead of the USDA. Ukraine said that their 2016 harvest was 87% complete at 53.7 MMT. Corn harvesting is 59% done at 14.7 MMT. Russia's 2016 corn harvest is said to be 57.9% complete at 9.3 MMT so far. South Africa's CEC said that growers there will plant 26.4% more corn this year "mainly because of favourable weather forecasts for the new season, which will hopefully bring relief after the previous seasons' drought conditions." A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on corn found - Bullish: 4, Bearish: 4, Neutral: 11. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.55, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.63 1/4, down 3 cents. For the week Dec 16 corn was up 2 1/2 cents and Mar 17 added a cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day and for the week. "The stale bear stories of a large supply of wheat domestically and internationally weighs on all gains. Technicians have nothing to trade either with the market stuck within the same range its been trading within for 2 months. There is some concern the Southern Plains are getting too dry and won’t allow a good establishment of the newly seeded wheat but little attention is being paid to next year’s production with a 1.2 billion carryout in hand today," said FCStone. Russia's 2016 grain harvest is said to be 94.8% complete at 119.5 MMT. Wheat is 98.1% harvested at 75.8 MMT. Winter grains are planted on 16.8 million ha (96.8% of the government forecast) versus 15.7 million ha this time a year ago. French winter wheat planting for next year's harvest is said to be 60% complete versus 72% a year ago. There's some talk of frost in southern Brazil and northern Argentina being a risk for wheat crops there. Canada's 2016 wheat harvest remains at a standstill due to adverse weather conditions. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on wheat found - Bullish: 6, Bearish: 3, Neutral: 9. Ukraine said that it's wheat exports in September were 2.6 MMT, an 8% fall year-on-year. Season to date exports (Jul/Sep) were 6.2 MMT, up 13% versus the same period in 2015/16. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.08 1/2, down 6 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.11 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.24 1/2, down 1 cent. For the week CBOT wheat was down 6 cents, Kansas wheat lost 10 1/4 cents and Minneapolis shed 4 1/2 cents.
