Chicago Grains Close - Wednesday
05/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower with Informa joining FCStone in raising their 2016 US yield estimates. They went for 51.6 bu/acre versus a previous forecast of 49.5 bu/acre. Not as high as FCS's 52.5 bu/acre, but above the USDA's 50.6 bu/acre estimate. Informa estimate soybean production at 4.299 billion bushels, 100 million above the USDA. Dr Cordonnier said that Argentina's decision to postpone the reduction of the soybean export tax could mean 1-200,000 acres lower plantings than originally intended this year. Brazilian soya is said to be 5% planted vs 3% a year ago and 4% on average at this time. Brazil's ANEC forecast soybean exports at 52 MMT this year, down from a previous estimate of 57 MMT. They see those climbing only modestly next year to 53 MMT. Winter rapeseed planting in Ukraine is said to be 100% complete at 722k ha. Other than that fresh news was lacking with China on holiday. Weekly exports sales tomorrow are estimated to be in the region of 1.2-1.5 MMT. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.56 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.63 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $303.80, down $0.70; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.66, down 23 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with small losses. Weekly US ethanol production was reported down 9,000 barrels per day by the US Energy Dept. Informa estimated 2016 US corn yields down from 175.2 bu/acre last month to 174.5 bu/acre. FCStone were 175.2 bu/acre yesterday and the USDA were at 174.4 bu/acre last month. Informa have production at 15.215 billion bu versus 15.093 billion from the USDA. Crude oil is again approaching the $50/barrel level which should be supportive for corn. Ukraine said that their corn harvest is 25% done at 6.26 MMT. Dr Cordonnier said that Argentine growers might plant 100-200,000 acres more corn than he originally estimated due to the government's change of stance on the soybean export tax. He already sees plantings up 25% this year. Brazilian full season corn is said to be 40% planted versus 33% last year and 26% on average at this time. "US weekly corn (export) sales are estimated from 1,800 to 2,500 MT vs 575 MT last week. 1 MMT will come from the massive sale to Mexico that was announced last week," said Benson Quinn. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.47 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.57 1/2, down 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with solid gains in Chicago and Kansas. For once Minneapolis was the laggard, managing only modest advances. Today's rally may have prompted some short-covering. Morocco were reported to have bought 260,000 MT of US hard wheat, which was supportive even if that was only due to the preferential terms extended their way. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are around 400-700,000 MT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegged Argentine wheat production at 12.5 MMT. Russia's PM estimated their grain crop at 115 MMT (a 25-year high), of which 112 MMT is said to already be harvested. Russia's exports have been lagging last year's pace a little, but may now start to pick up now that they have abolished the export duty on wheat - even though latterly this has been at fairly minimal levels. They won a clean sweep in yesterday's Egyptian tender. Winter grain sowings in Ukraine are complete on 3.95 million ha, some 360k ha less than at this time a year ago. Wheat plantings are 59% complete at 3.65 million ha. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.05, up 9 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.15, up 12 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.22 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents.
