Nogger's Blog

07/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small losses on the day, and small gains for the week. The USDA reported the sale of 195,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. China will be back from their Golden Week holiday next week so more sales could follow. Government offices are closed Monday for Columbus Day, so weekly export inspections will be delayed until Tuesday. The USDA will then be out on Wednesday wit their latest October WASDE report. Trade ideas for that are a yield increase to a new record 51.5 bu/acre and production at 4.286 billion bushels. Fund money added a further 7,500 lots to their overall net long in beans for the week through to Tuesday night. Parts of northern Brazil remain dry, but further south planting is on schedule. In Argentina corn looks like picking up a few more acres at the expense of soybeans following the recent government change of heart on the export tax on beans. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.56 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.63, down 1 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $298.60, down $2.90; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.11, up 1 point. For the week nearby beans were up 2 3/4 cents, meal was 70 cents higher and oil was down 13 points.

Corn: The market closed around a cent or so lower on the day and 3 cents or so higher on the week. Crude oil fell back below the $50/barrel mark after only a brief period above that level, as it did the last time it reached that mark. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated the Argentine corn area at 4.9 million ha, up from a previous forecast of 4.5 million and 27% more than a year ago. They said that 26% of this, or 1.26 million ha, had been planted already. Russia said that their corn harvest was 30% done at 4.6 MMT. Ukraine said that their corn harvest was also 30% complete at 6.88 MMT. FranceAgriMer today reported the French corn harvest at 10% complete as of Oct 3, up from 4% done the previous week and versus 18% this time last year. Crop conditions good to very good fell one point to 53%. In next week's WASDE report the trade is looking for US production to come in around 15.06 billion bushels, with a national average yield of 173.5 bu/acre. The USDA were at 15.093 billion bushels on a 174.4 bu/acre national average yield last month. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.39 3/4, down 3/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.49 1/2, down 3/4 cent. For the week Dec 16 corn was up 3 cents and Mar 17 was also 3 cents higher.

Wheat: The wheat market closed slightly lower on the day, and mixed for the week. Minneapolis wheat moved higher this week on ideas that quality milling wheat will be in short supply in 2016/17. Managed money is holding a record short 151,417 contracts in Chicago wheat futures and options as of Tuesday night, 20,000 more than a week ago, according to CFTC data. That leaves the market vulnerable to a corrective bounce, but when? The US needs some export business, and yesterday's weekly sales numbers were disappointing. South Korea's Deahan tendered for 42 TMT of Australian wheat. Russia's exports are picking up, the Ag Ministry placed these at 10.4 MMT of grains Jul 1 to Oct 5, a 2.7% increase on this time last year. Wheat accounts for 8.6 MMT of that total. Rusagrotrans forecast October grain exports at 3.8-4.0 MMT. Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are said to be 76.5% done on 13.3 million ha. French winter wheat planting was reported at 6% complete versus 17% a year ago, delayed by dryness. In Ukraine, winter grains are 69% planted on 4.37 million ha including 4.0 million of wheat (65% of the government forecast). Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.94 3/4, down 1 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.03, down 2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.22, down 2 3/4 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was down 7 1/4 cents, Kansas lost 12 1/2 cents and Minneapolis was 7 1/2 cents higher.