Chicago Grains Mostly Lower In "Turnaround Tuesday" Trade
04/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower in "Turnaround Tuesday" trade. Northern Brazil reportedly got some favorable rains overnight allowing planting there to begin. FCStone forecast US soybean yields at a record 52.5 bu/acre, shattering the previous all-time high by 4.5 bu/acre. The USDA were at 50.6 bu/acre last month. "Incorporating the FCS number into the USDA’s table the carryout grows to 525 mln bushels or something that would historically be associated with $8.25 futures," said FCStone. They have recently forecast prices falling to $9/bu. Argentina's President Macri announced that the previously promised 5% reduction in soybean export taxes would a) be postponed until 2018 and b) only then be phased in at the rate of 0.5% per month. Weather watchers will be keeping an eye on the tracking forecasts for Hurricane Matthew to see just how close to the US mainland it might come. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.63 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.69 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $304.50, down $1.40; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.89, down 16 points.
Corn: The market closed around 2-3 cents lower, partially reversing some of yesterday's gains. Private exporters reported an export sale of 100,000 MT of US corn to unknown destinations under the daily reporting system. Ukraine said that their ongoing corn harvest is 25% complete with a crop of 26.0-26.5 MMT expected. Brazil customs data shows that they exported 2.91 MMT of corn in Spetmeber, a 16% reduction on the same period in 2016. Brazilian corn is massively over-priced in the market at the moment due to production shortages and aggressive early season sales by shippers. FCStone cut their forecast for US 2016 corn yields from 175.6 bu/acre to 175.2 bu/acre (USDA: 174.4 bu/acre). That puts production at 15.163 billion bushels, down from the September forecast of 15.195 billion bushels (USDA: 15.093 billion bushels). Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed across the three exchanges. Minneapolis wheat remains the strongest leg of the three. Smaller than expected HRS production figures published on Friday are the reason behind that move. Reduced quality aspirations in Canada, and possibly Australia too, are a contributing factor to strength on Minneapolis. The Grain Association of Western Australia lowered their forecast for wheat production in Western Australia state by 0.4 MMT to 10.5 MMT, although that's still up 13.6% on last year. Japan tendered for 153 TMT of US. Canadian, Australian wheat in their regular weekly foray into the market. Egypt's GASC were reported late to have bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat for Nov 1-10 delivery in their latest tender, paying $177.77 to $178.95/tonne FOB. The cheapest Romanian wheat was offered at $180.99/tonne. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.95 1/2, unchanged; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.03, down 4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.22 1/4, up 6 cents.
