Nogger's Blog

27/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, but off session highs. Strong weekly export sales of 2,045,400 MT for 2016/17 were up 2 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Almost all of those were for China (1,825,700 MT, including 875,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 75,400 MT). Weekly exports of 2,808,600 MT were a marketing-year high, up 5 percent from the previous week and 99 percent above the prior 4-week average. Again China (2,276,400 MT) was by far the major home. In addition there were sales of 396,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China and 129,000 MT to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year announced under the daily reporting system. The IGC estimated the world soybean crop in 2016/17 up 3 MMT from previously at 332 MMT (USDA 333.2 MT). They have consumption up 1 MMT and ending stocks 4 MMT higher than previously at 33 MMT (USDA 77.4 MMT). Monday is first notice November futures. Longs need to be out by the close tomorrow or risk taking delivery. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.14 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.25, up 4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $327.60, up $8.50; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.11, down 61 points.

Corn: Corn closed around 3 cents higher. Weekly export sales came in at 799,300 MT for 2016/17, down 21 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. That was a little below trade ideas of 850,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. Exports of 524,300 MT were down 37 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Presumably this was due to the high demand for soybean shipments. The USDA announced the sale of 204,000 MT of grain sorghum for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. The IGC raised their view on the size of the global corn crop in 2016/17 by 8 MMT to 1035 MMT (USDA 1026 MMT). They now see consumption up 4 MMT at 1023 MMT and ending stocks up 5 MMT from a month ago to 221 MMT (USDA 217 MMT). They have next year's Argentine corn crop at 42.5 MMT versus 39.8 MMT this year and 40.2 MMT previously. This year's US crop was placed at 382.5 MMT versus 378.8 MMT previously. South Korea's NOFI bought 273,000 MT of optional origin corn for Feb/Mar shipment in a tender. Russia said that their 2016 corn harvest is 56.6% complete at 9.2 MMT. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.57 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.66 1/4, up 3 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed flat to a little higher. Weekly export sales of 646,100 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were up 26 percent from the previous week and up 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. Pre-report trade ideas were for sales of a more modest 350,000 to 550,000 MT. There were also sales of 26,300 MT reported for 2017/18. Exports of 264,100 MT were however down 43 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. South Korea's NOFI were reported to have bought 65,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat in a tender. CBH lowered their forecast for the Western Australia state grain harvest from 15-17 MMT to 13-14 MMT due to more extensive frost damage than previously expected. Bangladesh tendered for 50,000 MT of 12.5% milling wheat of optional origin. The USDA's FAS estimated India's import needs at 3 MMT this season. The IGC raised global wheat production in 2016/17 by 1 MMT from a month ago to 748 MMT. They now see ending stocks 2 MMT higher at 233 MMT. Rusagrotans estimated Russia's October wheat exports at 2.3 MMT versus 2.54 MMT in 2015 and 3.02 MMT in September. Adverse weather conditions, a shortage of high quality wheat and the firmer rouble were all cited as reasons behind the move. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.14 1/2, up 3 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.17, unchanged; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.25 1/2, unchanged.