Nogger's Blog

21/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher on the day and for the week. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money adding around 14k lots to their net soybean long to leave them 63.5k net long. The trade is looking for the USDA to put 2016 US soybean harvesting at around 70% complete on Monday. Informa estimated 2017 US soybean plantings up 5.7% at a record 88.5 million acres, implying production at 4.15 billion bu using a return to "normal" yields of 47.2 bu/acre. The USDA’s Attache to Argentina estimates the 2016/17 soy crop at 55 MMT vs the USDA’s 57 MMT forecast. Winter rapeseed planting in Ukraine is said to be complete on 107% of the government's originally forecast area at 775k ha. Dryness has caused some emergence issues. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.83, up 7 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.92 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $306.50, up $1.90; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.12, up 7 points. For the week nearby beans were up 10 1/2 cents, meal gained $5.90 and oil added 74 points.

Corn: The corn market closed slightly higher on the day, but marginally lower for the week. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money covering in around 61k contracts of their overall net short position in corn. Informa placed 2017 US corn plantings down 3.7% on this year. Average yields of 170.4 bu/acre would bring in a crop of 14.242 billion bushels. Argentine corn planting only moved on 2.9 percentage points this week to 34.7% done, said the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. They see final plantings up 27% year-on-year at 4.9 million ha. FranceAgriMer said that corn harvesting there was 39% complete (versus 52% a year ago). Ukraine corn is 45% harvested at 10.92 MMT. Russia's crop is 48.3% harvested at 7.7 MMT. "The 5 day weather models bring in moderate to heavy rains in the central region of the Midwest early next week and the 6-15 day models expand that to the entire Midwest which is expected to slow the harvest progress significantly, said FCStone. Harvesting was 46% done as of last Sunday. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.52 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.62 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents, For the week that puts Dec 16 corn 1 3/4 cents lower, with Mar 17 down 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day and mixed for the week across the three exchanges. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money covering in around 33k lots of their net short in Chicago wheat for the week through to Tuesday night. Informa estimated US all wheat acres for the 2017 harvest at the lowest levels since 1970 at 48.9 million acres. Winter wheat plantings were seen at 35.42 million acres. The USDA's FAS in Brazil estimated their wheat crop this year at 6 MMT. Harvesting of that is taking place now. Dr Cordonnier reports that conditions are excessively wet, causing harvest delays and some production and quality concerns for the third year running. FranceAgriMer reported winter wheat sowing at 43% complete (23% last week and 52% last year at this time). Russia's winter grains are said to be 93% planted. Ukraine growers have 82% of their winter wheat area sown. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.14 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.29, down 2 1/4 cents. For the week that puts CBOT wheat 6 1/2 cents lower, with Kansas up 3 3/4 cents and Minneapolis up 1/2 a cent.