Chicago Beans Rally Despite Lower Than Expected Export Sales
10/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher despite weekly export sales for once falling short of trade expectations. At 1,001,800 MT for 2016/17 these were down 60 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2017/18, net sales of 102,000 MT were reported for unknown destinations (60,000 MT) and Mexico (42,000 MT). Exports of 2,791,300 MT were still pretty impressive, with China taking 2,063,400 MT of that total. This was the fourth week in a row that the US shipped out more than 2.6 MMT of beans, most of them heading for China. For now at least, the market seems relaxed about the Trump shock victory and some of his antagonistic comments re China. The USDA also announced a sale of 126,000 MT of soybeans to China under the daily reporting system. Conab forecast Brazil's new crop at 101.6 MMT to 103.5 MMT versus 102 MMT from the USDA yesterday. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.89, up 7 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.98, up 7 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $311.40, unchanged; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.77, up 46 points.
Corn: The market closed with net gains of a couple of cents or so. Weekly export sales of 1,233,800 MT for 2016/17 were down 16 percent from the previous week, but up 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Mexico (709,300 MT) was the top home (what are they going to do when the wall goes up?!) and weekly exports themselves of 892,600 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Again Mexico was the leading buyer. The USDA also announced an export sale of 140,000 MT of corn to Saudi Arabia under the daily reporting system. South American weather remains favorable except for some small areas of Argentina that have been very wet. A dry pattern for the next 15 days for most of the Midwest should enable the bulk of the remaining US harvest to be wrapped up in a timely manner. FranceAgriMer said that this year's French corn harvest could be the lowest since 1990. They lowered their production forecast to 11.805 MMT, down from 12.197 MMT previously and 9.6% down versus last year - and that was hardly a vintage crop either. Russia said that they had now harvested 10.9 MMT of corn off 66.5% of the planted area. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.43 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.52, up 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed. The Minneapolis exchange managed small net gains for a second session. Weekly export sales of 769,600 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were up noticeably from the previous week and 63 percent from the prior 4-week average. The top homes were unknown destinations (420,200 MT), China (60,000 MT) and Thailand (55,000 MT). Exports themselves of 380,200 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (98,300 MT), Mexico (68,000 MT), South Korea (50,800 MT), Nigeria (35,500 MT) and the Philippines (33,000 MT). French winter wheat planting has advanced to 90% complete versus 78% a week ago and 93% a year ago. FranceAgriMer increased the proportion of the French winter wheat crop rated good to very good by one percentage point from last week to 95% (versus 97% a year ago). The French analysts forecast the nation's soft wheat exports to fellow EU destinations at 6.3 MMT versus 6.42 MMT previously and 19% down on a year ago. Exports to non-EU homes were placed at 4.7 MMT, unchanged from last month but still 63% lower than in 2015/16. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04 3/4, down 2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.08 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.15, up 1/2 cent.
