Nogger's Blog

11/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower on the day, and marginally easier for the week. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing at a fast pace. Ag Rural has the crop at 63% planted nationally. IMEA have Mato Grosso at more than 80% done, 20 points ahead of this time last year. Brazilian growers have been holding back on sales versus a year ago, but a stronger Brazilian real this week may have added an incentive to induce them to sell, competing with US supplies. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on beans found 8 bulls, 3 bears and 5 neutrals. The November CBOT soybean contract expires on Monday. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.78 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.86, down 12 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $307.80, down $3.60; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.44, down 33 points. For the week, Nov 16 beans were down 3 cents, Dec 16 meal was down $1.20 and Dec 16 oil slid 27 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower on the day and for the week. Conab estimated Brazil's full season corn crop at 83.1-84.6 MMT, up from 82.3 - 83.8 MMT previously, and far higher than this year's crop. The country is estimated at 71% planted. Argentina is estimated to be around 40% done. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange still estimates Argentine corn acres to be up 27% on last year. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on corn found 4 bulls, 4 bears and 8 neutrals. The Russian Ag Ministry said that their 2016 corn harvest was 68% complete at 11.2 MMT off 2.0 million ha. Record production is expected this year. Rusagrotrans raised their estimate for 2016/17 Russian corn exports to 5.3 MMT against 4.65 MMT n 2015/16. Ukraine said that they'd harvested 58.44 MMT of grains of 92% of the planted area. That includes a corn harvest that's now 74% complete at 19.38 MMT off 3.15 million ha. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.40 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.49, down 3 cents. For the week Dec 16 was down 8 1/2 cents and Mar 17 was also 8 1/2 cents lower.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, with Minneapolis again the strongest leg. Egypt's GASC bought just the one cargo (60,000 MT) of Russian wheat in their tender, paying more than $2.50/tonne more than they did just a few days ago. There were only a few offers, maybe due to the unattractive shipment period (Dec 15-25). Russia's 2016 wheat harvest remains at 75.8 MMT off 98.1% of the planted area. Plantings for 2017 are complete on 17.2 million ha (99.1% of the government forecast). Much colder weather is in the forecast a week from now. Ukraine winter wheat is said to be 95% planted on 5.88 million ha. Rusagrotrans lowered their forecasts for Russia's wheat and barley exports in 2016/17. They cut wheat by 1 MMT to 27 MMT and barley by 1.8 MMT to 2.5 MMT citing a shortage of quality grain in both cases this year. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on wheat found 4 bulls, 4 bears and 8 neutrals. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.10 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.20, up 5 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat 11 1/4 cents lower, with Kansas down 1 1/4 cents and Minneapolis up 9 3/4 cents.