Chicago Grains End Mixed, Strong Demand Supports Beans
03/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed modestly higher as the strong demand/record supply conundrum plays out. Weekly export sales of 2,514,100 MT for 2016/7 were a marketing-year high, up 28 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. China took more than 2 MMT of that total. The trade was only looking for sales of 1.3 to 1.8 MMT. There were also 2017/18 sales of 60,000 MT to Spain. Exports of 2,932,600 MT were also a marketing-year high, up 7 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. Again China was responsible for more than 2 MMT of that total. In addition we had a flash sales of another 120,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown destinations under the daily reporting system. Informa estimates 2016 US soybean yields at 52.4 bu/acre versus 52.8 bu/acre from FCStone yesterday and 51.4 bu/acre from the USDA. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.79 3/4, up 3 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.89 1/2, up 3 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $306.40, down $0.30; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.10, up 12 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with small gains. Weekly export sales of 1,473,500 MT for 2016/17 were up 84 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Trade estimates were for sales of 700,000 MT to 1.05 MMT. Weakness in the US dollar as Trump gains the upper hand in the election run-up was supportive for grains in general too. Exports of 868,700 MT were up 66 percent from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. Informa lowered their 2016 US corn yield estimate to 174.0 bu/acre compared to their October figure of 174.5 bu/acre. Even so that's still higher than the USDA's 173.4 bu/acre forecast from a month ago. The USDA are out with their revised November estimates next week. The Russian corn harvest is now said to have reached 10.1 MMT off 62.1% of the planted area. South Korea were said to have purchased 136,000 MT of optional origin corn in an overnight tender. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.48, up 1 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.57, up 1 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges. Weekly export sales of only 234,900 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were down 64 percent from the previous week and 54 percent from the prior 4-week average. Estimates were for sales of 350,000 to 750,000 MT. Exports of 327,100 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week, but down 28 percent from the prior 4-week average. Algeria were said to have bought 200,000 MT of durum wheat in their tender for 50,000 MT. Russia said that they'd now harvested 98.2% of their wheat for a gross volume of 75.8 MMT so far. The USDA's FAS forecast Canada's 2016/17 wheat exports to fall 5% to a four year low 21 MMT as rain, snow and frost take their toll on quality, and possibly the total volume available this year. Ukraine reported that they'd exported 2.6 MMT of wheat in September, an 8% drop versus 12 months previously. Still, total exports so far this season (Jul/Sep) are up 13% year-on-year at 6.18 MMT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.12, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.10 1/2, down 5 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.09 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents.
