Nogger's Blog

08/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with decent gains ahead of the results of the US presedential election and tomorrow's WASDE report from the USDA. The latter is expected to see the USDA increase their 2016 US yield forecast from last month's 51.4 bu/acre forecast to around 52.0 bu/acre. The trade has 2016/17 ending stocks up from 395 million bu a month ago to around 420 million this time round. Today the USDA reported export sales of 116,100 MT of soybean meal for delivery to the Dominican Republic during the 2016/17 marketing year. Chinese customs data showed that they only imported 5 MMT of soybeans in October, down 5.8% versus October 2015 and the smallest volume since February. There is a seasonal tendancy for October imports to be low. Strategie Grains forecast EU-28 OSR plantings for next year's harvest up slightly at 6.62 million ha. They said that production in 2016 was 20.12 MMT, down 8.7% year-on-year. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.01 3/4, up 12 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.11 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $315.70, up $3.80; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.31, up 52 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with decent pre-USDA report gains which may have been linked to book-squaring. The average trade guesses for tomorrow are for US production of around 15.017 billion bu and an average yield of 173 bu/acre. The USDA had production at 15.057 billion bu and yields at 173.4 bu/acre a month ago. 2016/17 ending stocks are placed at 2.30 billion bu. Customs data shows that US corn exports in September were 6.36 MMT, a whopping 89% increase year-on-year. The USDA has final full season exports up 17% at 56.52 MMT. The French Corn Producers Association estimated the size of this year's French corn crop at 12.6 MMT, slightly above the Ag Ministry's 12.5 MMT forecast, but still around 9% down on last year. The South African Grain Information Service say that the country's corn imports so far this season are up threefold at 1.38 MMT due to drought. Ukraine said that their 2016 corn harvest is 71% done at 18.19 MMT. In Russia the corn harvest has now reached 64.3% complete at 10.5 MMT. Trade talk suggests that rapid progress with Brazilian corn planting may lead to an earlier than normal start to this season's harvest. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.54 1/4, up 8 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.62 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with good gains despite a lack of news. Short-covering ahead of tomorrow's USDA report may have been a feature. Egypt's GASC bought 180,000 MT of Russian wheat and 60,000 MT of Romanian origin material in their latest tender for Dec 10-20 shipment. The prices paid were around $187-190/tonne FOB for the Russian grain and $191/tonne for the Romanian product. The Russian grain harvest is said to be 95.3% complete at 120.7 MMT. That includes 75.8 MMT of wheat (98.1% harvested) and 19.1 MMT of barley (97% cut). The Russian Ag Ministry lowered their estimate for the country's 2016/17 grain exports to 35 MMT, of which 28 MMT will be wheat. Exports so far this season are lagging year ago levels despite the outlook for a bumper harvest. Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are 98.8% over on 17.1 million ha. Customs data shows that French soft wheat exports in September were down 43% year-on-year at 737 TMT following the disaster that was this year's French wheat harvest (estimated down 31% by the French Ag Ministry yesterday). Poor quality is also a problem for exports this year. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.15 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.17 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.14, up 7 1/2 cents.