Chicago Beans Manage Small Gains, But Rest Of Grains Lower
07/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains. The USDA announced the sale of 330,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China. Of the total 66,000 MT is for delivery during the 2016/17 marketing year and 264,000 MT is for delivery during the 2017/18 marketing year. They also announced a sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. So, the battle between strong nearby demand and record production continues. Whilst the demand from China is there now, there's growing concern that things might not look as rosy in the new year should things escalate between Trump/China and the latter decide to use soybeans as a bargaining tool. There will be plenty of South American soybeans on offer as an alternative by then. Ag Rural said that the Brazilian harvest in Mato Grosso will start early and that the state could harvest 7 MMT of beans in January alone. Dyness and heat in Southern Brazil and Argentina is starting to attract some notice, but has note demonstrated a major threat potential yet. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 1.0 to 1.4 MMT for soybeans. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.49, up 1 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.59 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $319.20, down $1.00; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 37.72, up 10 points.
Corn: Corn closed a touch easier. There's some trade talk of US corn heading for Brazil to shore up their supplies depleted by aggressive early season exports and a slump in safrinha production in 2015/16. Prospects look much better for 2016/17, but the crop's not made yet. Argentine weather leans a bit friendly. US weekly ethanol production rose to 1.023 million barrels per day last week (the highest production level in 14 weeks), up from 1.012 million the previous week. Ethanol demand remains unusually strong as margins remain favourable. Year to date ethanol export shipments are up 19% from last year. This could mean that the USDA will increase their corn for ethanol usage estimate in Friday’s WASDE report. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are running at around 700,000 and 1,000,000 MT. French corn exports in October were 435,000 MT versus 590,000 MT a year previously. The largest buyers were the Netherlands (115.1 TMT), Spain (113.5 TMT), Germany (55.3 TMT) and Belgium (54.6 TMT). According to the forecasts of FranceAgriMer, in the current season corn exports will fall to 5.14 MMT (-15.7% compared to last season). Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.50 1/2, down 1/2 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58, down 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower across the three exchanges. Cold temperatures continue to be forecast for US plains, but with large supplies, the trade is not too concerned. China said it sold just 6% of the 74,292 of US SRW wheat reserves offered up for sale at auction yesterday. Japan are tendering for 123,754 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular weekly tender. French soft wheat exports are struggling. Total October French wheat exports, including those within the EU, were down 31% at 685,000 MT. Season-to-date non-EU exports are 32% lower at just 1.8 MMT from what is usually the bloc's largest foreign seller. The Russian Ag Ministry said that this year's harvest in bunker weight was 125.1 MMT so far off 97% of the planned area. They now foresee a final clean weight harvest of 117.5-118.0 MMT, using around a 6% reduction for cleaning/screening. That would potentially give them a wheat crop of around 71.5 MMT in clean weight and see barley production at around 18 MMT (USDA 72 MMT and 18 MMT respectively). Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales for wheat are 300,000 MT and 500,000 MT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.86 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.82, down 5 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.34, down 4 3/4 cents.
