Chicago Grains Close - Pre-USDA
11/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed slightly lower heading into tomorrow's all important USDA report. Brazilian production estimates keep nudging higher. Celeres raised their estimate to 105 MMT. AgroConsult upped theirs from 102.6 MMT to 104.4 MMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry have production there at 56 MMT, although others are 1-2 MMT lower. It remains to be seen if tensions between the US and China due to the upcoming Trump administration will cause any trade disputes on beans. The US is of course a major supplier to China. Tomorrow will also bring the usual Thursday weekly export sales report, with these estimated at around 500,000 to 800,000 MT for beans. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.03, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.11 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $310.70, down $2.70; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 35.79, up 36 points.
Corn: The market closed around a cent or so easier. News that China is to impose an anti-dumping tax on US DDGs has the market uneasy. JCI estimates China's DDGs imports may drop 80-90% from the 6.8 MMT imported in 2015. Friendly was news from the US Energy Dept that weekly US ethanol production beat last week's record at 1,049 billion barrels/day last week. AgroConsult raised their view on Brazilian corn production this year from 92 MMT to 94.9 MMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry projected their 2016/17 corn crop would be 44.51 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the region of 500,000-800,000 MT. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.57 1/4, down 1 cent; May 17 Corn settled at $3.64, down 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly lower heading into tomorrow's USDA report. Talk of much-needed rain for the southern plains this weekend leans bearish. CONAB estimated Brazil's wheat imports at 5.95 MMT versus 5.1 MMT a month ago. Argentina will be the main beneficiary of that. Forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales for wheat are only around 250,000-450,000 MT for 2016/17, with maybe another 50,000 MT of new crop. The trade will be keep to see what the USDA have to say with regards to US winter wheat plantings. The average trade guess is for all wheat plantings to have dropped 2 million to 34.1 million acres, but some estimates are as low as 31.7 million. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.18 3/4, down 8 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.31 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.61 1/4, up 1/4 cent.
