USDA Report - What Is Expected

The November Crop Production Report comes out Monday and it will provide the final U.S. corn and soybean crop updates until January 2009. Traders have set their expectations in place for the data which will be out Monday at 13.30GMT before US markets open for the day.


On average, analysts expect the USDA to increase the corn yield slightly to 154.3 bushels an acre, from 153.9 bushels last month, pushing up 2008-09 production slightly to 12.066 billion from 12.033 billion bushels. New crop carryout is expected at 1.160 billion bushels, from 1.088 billion.


Average soybean production estimates are 2.916 billion bushels, lower the USDA's current forecast of 2.938 billion bushels. The average soybean yield estimate is 39.2 bushels per acre, below the USDA's 39.5 estimated in October. Analysts, on average, peg new-crop carryout at 189 million bushels, compared to the USDA's current estimate of 205 million bushels.


The average of analysts' estimates for U.S. wheat carryout in 2008-2009 is 594 million bushels, down from the USDA's October estimate of 601 million.