Nogger's Blog

The USDA Numbers

30/03/12 -- The USDA's eagerly awaited numbers are out.

The corn planting number is the highest in 75 years and above even the highest trade estimate. The soybean figure on the other hand is below the lowest trade estimate. The wheat number is towards the low end of expectations, although still 1.5 million up on last year.

Mar 1st stocks have all come in a bit lower than expectations.

Plantings:

The USDA Numbers

09/03/12 -- The USDA's eagerly awaited raft of important numbers are out. Here's the gist of it:

CORN

Brazil's crop raised, not lowered, by 1 MMT to 62 MMT. Reflects what CONAB had to say yesterday. Hopes of a large second crop coming to the rescue it would seem. Argy production left unchanged at 22 MMT, that will disappoint the bulls. US corn exports seen holding steady at 43.2 MMT. World corn ending stocks cut to 124.5 MMT, but that's a million more than the trade expected. US corn ending stocks unchanged at 801 million bushels, a cut to 785 million was expected. Overall a bit bearish for corn.

SOYBEANS

Argentina cut 1.5 MMT to 46.5 MMT, a tad lower than the 46.8 MMT average guess. Brazil's crop cut by more than anticipated too, to 68.5 MMT vs the average trade guess of 69.3 MMT and 72 MMT from the USDA last month. World ending stocks pegged at 57.3 MMT, which is 3 MMT down on last month and half a million less than anticipated. US ending stock though are left unchanged at 275 million bushels, contrary to expectations of a cut to 260 million. Despite lower output in South America, US exports left unchanged. Chinese imports cut slightly from 55.5 MMT to 55 MMT. Overall these numbers are a bit bullish though, especially when following on from yesterday's bumper export sales.

WHEAT

World wheat ending stocks reduced from 213.1 MMT to 209.6 MMT, meaning that they aren't now seen as being the highest on record. US wheat ending stocks cut by more than anticipated too, by 20 million bushels to 825 million. Australian production raised from 28.3 MMT to a record 29.5 MMT. Mildly friendly.

The USDA Numbers

09/02/12 -- The USDA's eagerly awaited raft of important numbers are out and for once are mostly in line with trade expectations.

Catching my eye however is world wheat ending stocks increasing by 3 MMT to an all time high 213.1 MMT whereas a drop of around 1 MMT had been expected.

Brazilian corn production wasn't dropped as expected but left unchanged at 61.0 MMT, Argy corn output was lowered to 22.0 MMT, roughly in line with trade guesses.

Argy soybean production was cut 2.5 MMT to 48.5 MMT, Brazil's ouput was reduced 2 MMT to 72.0 MMT.

US soybean ending stocks came in as per expectations at 275 million bushels, wheat stocks were cut a bit more than expected to 845 million due to increased US exports. Corn ending stocks were reduced by a little less than anticipated to 801 million.

The USDA Numbers

12/10/11 -- The long awaited USDA numbers are out and they're a bit of a mixed bag. For US corn the yield estimate was left unchanged from last month at 148.1 bu/acre, contrary to the expected small rise to 148.7 bu/ace. Production came in at 12.433 billion bushels versus the 12.471 billion expected. As often seems to be the case with the USDA though they take away with one hand and give with another, 2010/11 ending stocks were raised from 920 million last month to 1.128 billion this time round and 2011/12 carryout increased from 672 million to 866 million bushels, higher than the 806 million expected. World corn ending stocks were also increased for both marketing years with 2010/11 up from 124.3 MMT to 129.8 MMT and 2011/12 rising from 117.4 MMT to 123.2 MMT (vs 119.97 MMT expected). China's corn crop was upped 4 MMT to 182 MMT, which will surprise a few including the US Grains Council and imports were left unchanged at 2 MMT.

Soybeans: The report was more uniform for beans with US yields lowered to 41.5 bu/acre when the trade was expecting them to be left unchanged at 41.8 bu/acre. Final US production was forecast at 3.06 billion bushels versus the 3.08 billion expected. US ending stocks for both crop years were reduced, by 10 million for 2010/11 to 215 million bushels and by 5 million to 160 million for 2011/12 (the market was expecting a figure of 183 million). World soybean ending stocks for both season were however raised with 2010/11 coming in at 69.3 MMT (from 68.8 MMT in September) and at 63.0 MMT in 2011/12 (from 62.6 MMT).

Wheat: US all wheat production was pegged at just over 2 billion bushels with 2011/12 stocks at 837 million bushels, up from 761 million last month and the 733 million expected. World production for 2011/12 was raised from 678.1 MMT to 681.2 MMT and global ending stocks increased from 194.6 MMT to 202.4 MMT (and much higher than the unchanged 194.6 MMT expected).

There are mixed reactions online to all this but I'd call it bearish wheat, neutral to mildly bearish corn and modestly bullish on beans - so pick the bones out of that!

The last number is the stand out one for me. At 202.4 MMT we now have 10-year high world wheat stocks - pegged even higher than they were in 2009/10 when they were regularly referred to as "burdensome" by all and sundry.

The USDA Numbers/Early Call

12/09/11 -- The long awaited USDA numbers are out, pegging US corn production this year at 12.497 billion bushels, a fraction under the 12.519 expected using a yield of 148.1 bu/acre which is again a little below the average trade guess of 149 bu/acre.

Soybean yields however are increased 0.4 bu/acre from last month's 41.4 bu/acre to 41.8 bu/acre, whereas the trade was expecting a 0.4 bu/acre decrease. This gives us a total crop figure of 3.085 billion bushels, 53 million above expectations.

As far as ending stocks go 2010/11 corn carryout is 920 million bushels, 20 million down from last month and 36 million below expectations. For 2011/12 ending stocks are 672 million bushels, versus 714 million last month, but higher than the 636 million expected.

Soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are 225 million bushels (230m last time and 226m expected. For 2011/12 we have 165 million (155m; 151m).

The 2011/12 wheat ending stocks are raised from 671m bushels to 761m compared to the 663m expected.

On a global basis world corn ending stocks for 2010/11 were raised from 122.9 MMT to 124.3 MMT, and for 2011/12 they were increased from 114.5 MMT to 117.4 MMT (vs 112.5 MMT expected).

The 2011/12 world wheat crop is increased from 672 MMT to 678 MMT.

The numbers look neutral for corn, but a little bearish for wheat and quite bearish for soybeans. Early calls see beans down 10-20 cents, with wheat down 5-10 cents and corn flat to 5 cents lower.

USDA Numbers

09/06/11 -- The USDA's stocks data just out pegs old crop US corn and soybean inventories higher than trade expectations. Old crop corn stocks were left unchanged at 730 million bushels and those for soybeans raised 10 million to 180 million. Wheat stocks were reduced 30 million to 809 million.

For new crop, corn stocks were cut more than analysts estimated to 695 million from 900 million last month. Soybean stocks were raised by 30 million, more than expected, to 190 million. Wheat stocks fell less than expected to 687 million.

US winter wheat production was raised from last month, contrary to widespread expectations for a fall. World wheat stocks were also raised for both 2010/11 and 2011/12. Corn stocks are seen falling on a global scale and soybean stocks remaining relatively static.

Here's the numbers:

USDA Numbers

08/04/11 -- Here's the all important numbers guys and gals. Quite bearish for corn (not that is likely to deter the corn bulls for long), a bit bearish for beans and a bit bullish for wheat:

WHEAT

US ending stocks came in lower than expected at 839 million bushels, against the average estimate of 857 million and 843 million last month. World ending stocks were up, pegged at 182.8 MT against the 182 MMT estimated and 181.9 MMT in March. There were no significant changes to wheat production around the world.

CORN

US ending stocks were left unchanged at 675 million bushels, against the average estimate of a sharp cut to 586 million. World ending stocks came in at 122.4 MT against 121 MMT estimated and 123 MMT in March. Brazil's corn crop was estimated at 52 MMT, 2 MMT up on last month. Argentine output was unchanged at 22 MMT.

SOYBEANS

US ending stocks were also unchanged coming in at 140 million bushels, against the average estimate of 137 million. World ending stocks pegged at 60.9 MT against 58.9 MMT estimated and 58.3 MMT in March. That increase came from Brazilian where output was increased 2 MMT to 72 MMT. Argentine production was left unchanged at 49.5 MMT, as too was China at 15.2 MMT.

USDA Report Reaction: Bullish Surprise For Soybeans

09/11/10 -- The much awaited USDA numbers are out and generally look bullish, especially for beans.

They cut soybean yields by half a bushel/acre from last month when a 0.3bpa increase was what the trade was expecting. That cut production by 33 million bushels against forecasts for an increase of 25 million. Soybean 2010/11 ending stocks came in well below expectations, falling 80 million bushels to 185 million compared to the 243 million the market was expecting. That cuts stocks to use to 5.5% or the equivalent of just 20 days worth of supply.

Corn yields and production were cut a bit more than expected, taking ending stocks down by 75 million bushels to 827 million, 18 million less than anticipated. That equates to a stocks to use ratio of just 6.2%.

They also cut 2010/11 all wheat production by 15 million bushels to 2.209 billion and trimmed ending stocks by 5 million against forecasts for a small 3 million increase. Even so at 848 million that is a very comfortable 34.7% stocks to use ratio.

On a global level world corn ending stocks were reduced by 3.2 MMT to 129.2 MMT, even though they upped Chinese production 2 MMT to 168 MMT. That will raise a few eyebrows. That pegs world stocks to usage at only 56 days of supply, the 2nd tightest of the past 35 years.

They dropped world wheat ending stocks by 2.2 MMT to 174.7 MMT (Russian output trimmed by half a million tonnes to 42 MMT).

World soybean ending stocks were almost unchanged at 61.41 MMT. China's import requirements for 2010/11 were raised 2 MMT to 57 MMT.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and wheat up 10 to 20, beans up 40 to 50.

USDA US Production/Stocks Numbers

USDA Production/Stocks Estimates

USDA Crop Numbers

10/11 Prod'n  USDA Sep   Avg Est      Range       USDA Aug    09/10
Corn           13.160     13.199   12.880-13.410   13.365    13.110
Soybeans        3.483      3.406    3.354-3.500     3.433     3.359
-------------------------------------------------------------------
10/11 Yields  USDA Sep   Avg Est      Range       USDA Aug    09/10
Corn           162.5       163.1    160.0-165.9     165.0     164.7
Soybeans        44.7        43.8     43.0-44.9       44.0      44.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
09/10 End Stks USDA Sep  Avg Est      Range       USDA Aug    08/09
Corn           1.386       1.412    1.350-1.479     1.426     1.673
Soybeans       0.150       0.151    0.125-0.171     0.160     0.138
-------------------------------------------------------------------
10/11 End Stks USDA Sep  Avg Est      Range       USDA Aug   
Corn           1.116       1.125    0.929-1.312     1.312        
Soybeans       0.350       0.304    0.129-0.373     0.360
Wheat          0.902       0.914    0.830-0.995     0.952
------------------------------------------------------------------

The USDA's Magic Numbers #3

The USDA cut world wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 to 174.8 MMT from 187.1 MMT in last month's report.

They upped their estimate for Chinese soybean imports to 52 MMT from 50 MMT. World ending stocks of soybeans in 2010/11 were cut from 67.76 MMt to 64.73 MMT.

Global corn ending stocks for 2010/11 were cut from 141.08 MMT to 139.2 MMT. The EU-27 corn crop was reduced from 56.99 MMT to 55.95 MMT, and the Ukraine corn crop cut by 1.5 MMT to 11.50 MMT.

The USDA's Magic Numbers #2

The USDA cut the world wheat crop to 645.7 MMT, some 4.3 MMT lower than the 650 MMT that the trade was expecting. That's a reduction of 15.4 MMT on last month.

The main highlights include:

Russia 45 MMT from 53 MMT
Kazakhstan 11.5 MMT from 14.0 MMT
EU-27 137.51 MMT from 141.82 MMT
Ukraine 17.0 MMT from 20.0 MMT

Whilst they are sizable cuts, they are no lower than most of the other estimates already in the market. Indeed they seem to be more like correcting last month's overstates than anything else.

As I noted when last month's figures came out: "Wheat production in Europe was only cut by just over a million tonnes to 141.82 MMT, whilst Russian production was estimated at 53 MMT. Both of those predictions are probably at least 3 MMT, and possibly as much as 5 MMT overstated."

The USDA's Magic Numbers#1

The USDA peg this year's US soybean and corn crops at record highs, and wheat production up 2 percent from their July forecast and up 2 percent from 2009.

US Ending Stocks (bil bu)
------------------------------------------------------------
2009/10           USDA    Avg Guess      Range      USDA Jul
------------------------------------------------------------
Soybeans          0.160     0.166     0.153-0.181     0.175       
Corn              1.426     1.459     1.390-1.523     1.478
------------------------------------------------------------
2010/11
Soybeans          0.360     0.334     0.275-0.404     0.360
Corn              1.312     1.307     0.970-1.535     1.373 
Wheat             0.973     0.982     0.800-1.132     1.093 
------------------------------------------------------------
US 2010/11 Production (bil bu)
------------------------------------------------------------
Soybeans          3.433     3.366     3.290-3.432     3.345
Corn             13.365    13.282    13.120-13.524   13.245
Wheat             2.264     2.233     2.206-2.250     2.216

A Few Numb-ers From The USDA

In amongst the plethora of numbers released by the USDA yesterday were their first official estimates of 2010/11 crop production.

Some items of note include EU-27 barley output at 59.4 MMT, only 3.4% down on last season's 61.5 MMT. Barley yields are seen higher in 2010 than they were in 2009, averaging 4.5 MT/ha, they reckon. That trims ending stocks by just over a million tonnes to 13.9 MMT.

EU-27 wheat production for the coming season is seen at 145.1 MMT, 4.5% up on last year, with yields here also increasing slightly to 5.6 MT/ha. Ending stocks will grow further from 17.7 MMT at the end of 2009/10 to 18.2 MMT, they say.

Although global wheat production will fall by almost 8 MMT, and consumption will increase nest season, 2010/11 ending stocks are still seen rising the best part of 5 MMT by the end of the marketing year with stocks to usage staying around the plentiful 30% mark.

Kazakhstan are seen coming from nowhere a couple of years ago, to weigh in with wheat ending stocks of their own on a par with the likes of Canada and Australia.

More like numb-ers than numbers if you are cryptically minded, considering that the combines will be rolling again before too long.

USDA Production Numbers

Today's USDA reports are seen as bearish for soybeans and wheat, but supportive for corn. They forecast 2010 US corn plantings at 88.8 million acres, slightly lower than their March estimate of 88.94 million. Soybean plantings were forecast at 78.1 million acres, unchanged from March. Winter wheat production was forecast at 1.46 billion bushels, down only 4 percent from 2009.

Corn ending stocks for 2009/10 came in at 1.738 billion bushels, well below the 1.861 billion that the trade was expecting, and down sharply from last month's estimate of 1.899 billion. Ending stocks for 2010/11 were pegged at 1.818 billion, also lower than the 1.901 billion anticipated.

Soybean ending stocks for the current season were left unchanged at 190 million bushels, whereas a small reduction to 180 million was expected. Ending stocks for next season are seen rising significantly to 365 million bushels, higher than the 340 million anticipated.

US wheat ending stocks for 2009/10 are seen at 950 million bushels, in line with estimates of 946 million, but stocks at the end of 2010/11 are seen rising further to 997 million, significantly more than the 953 million expected.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 1-2c, beans down 7-10c, wheat down 5-7c.

USDA Production/Stocks Numbers

The USDA came out with a 2009 US corn production number of 13.131 billion bushels, towards the upper end of the range of analyst's estimates of 12.838 to 13.158 billion bushels, and only 20 million down from the January report and 50 million above the average trade guess. Corn ending stocks were pegged at 1.799 billion bushels, somewhat higher than the average trade guess of 1.716 billion.

Soybean production came in at 3.359 billion bushels, again towards the top end of pre-report estimates ranging from 3.219 to 3.365 billion bushels, only 2 million down from January and 10 million above the average trade guess. US soybean ending stocks were reduced to 190 million bushels, 5 million below the average trade estimate.

Wheat ending stocks came in at 1.001 billion bushels, 20 million up on last time and also towards the top end of the range of 876 to 1,012 million bushels. The average guess was 971 million.

Ahead Of The USDA

In case you have been living an a cave for the past couple of weeks, you might like to know that the USDA are out later today with revised US crop production estimates for 2009 for soybeans and corn, plus ending stocks for beans, corn and wheat. In addition to that they are out with their latest world crop production estimates too.

The market is hoping for some direction, but what is the betting that the numbers end up being viewed as "predictable" and "unexciting" and we subsequently end up hanging on for the next set of tit-bits, the March 31st planting intentions report?

That's where my money is going already.

It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that the USDA might chuck in another curve ball and raise corn production rather than lower it either. That's what they did in January and corn has hardly stopped falling since.

If you want the pre-report estimates then soybean production ranges from 3.219 to 3.365 billion bushels and 161 to 217 million bushels for ending stocks. The average is around 3.349 billion bushels with an average carryout of around 195 million bushels.

For corn we are looking at a range from 12.838 to 13.158 billion bushels for production and 1.602 to 1.814 billion bushel for the 2009/10 carryout. The average corn crop estimate is 13.081 billion bushels. Ending stocks are projected at virtually unchanged from last month at 1.716 billion bushels.

For wheat ending stocks estimates range from 876 to 1,012 million bushels, with the average guess at 971 million, 10 million down on last month.

Last month they pegged Brazilian soybean production at 66 MMT, this week we've had estimates of 67.57 MMT from Conab and 66.9 MMT from the IBGE, so it appears that there could be some possibility in the USDA adding a further million to their estimate here. Even so, some private forecasters are saying that 64-65 MMT is likely to be nearer the mark.

Argy soybean production was pegged at 53 MMT last month, I can't see that changing today.

The only other numbers that I am interested in are what they say for Chinese wheat and corn production for 2009, after their attache came out with estimates of 106 MMT and 150 MMT late last week. Those figures are 8.5 MMT and 5 MMT respectively lower than the USDA's February numbers.

Will the USDA concur? Probably not, particularly on wheat as it might make them look a bit stupid. They haven't been anywhere near 106 MMT for the past year.

Are The USDA Numbers Overstated?

The highest corn yield ever by a country mile, and record production estimates for both beans and corn might not paint quite such an accurate picture as the USDA would like to make out.

Whilst very few people (except the odd deranged conspiracy theorist) would argue that US farmers have largely had anything other than some bloody good crops this year, many think that the USDA may be overestimating just how good things have been.

They did however issue a "rider" with Tuesdays numbers, saying that further surveys in states where the harvest was delayed may lead to these figures being amended in March.

So what are the real numbers? Respected private firm Lanworth Inc., who use perhaps a more sophisticated combination of satellite imagery, field surveys and ground data from the top producing states (as opposed to the USDA's approach of one Spectrum ZX, some crayons and a pack of cards) say 12.318 billion bushels for corn and 3.081 billion bushels for soybeans.

Still some pretty weighty numbers, but 6.3% lower than the USDA on corn, and 8.3% lower in the case of beans.

Which also beggars the question, if the USDA can't accurately tell us what size the crops are that have already been harvested, the how far out are their planting intentions likely to be in the spring? We've now got to wait until March 31st to get the USDA's first stab at getting those right for corn & beans. And whilst we're on the subject, what about their winter wheat area which came in lower than the lowest trade estimate, and almost 4 million below the average trade guess of 40.916 million acres?

USDA Numbers

Soybeans

US 2009 soybean production was raised from 3.319 billion bushels last month to 3.361 billion. That's a bit higher than the average trade estimate, which was for an increase to 3.337 billion bushels. Carryout was pegged at 245 million bushels, 10 million more than anticipated. Brazil production was raised 2 MMT to 65MMT, and output in Argentina left unchanged at 53 MMT.

Corn

US 2009 corn production was surprisingly raised from 12.920 billion bushels to 13.151 billion. The trade had been expecting a cut to 12.821 billion bushels of the wet harvest that left some corn in the field. Carryout was pegged at 1.764 billion bushels, much higher than trade expectations of 1.587 billion.

Wheat

US 2009 all wheat production was lowered slightly to 2.216 billion bushels from 2.220 billion. Wheat carryout was 976 million bushels, against expectations of 914 million bushels. US winter wheat seedings of 37.1 million acres are 14% down on 43.3 million last year and well below expectations of 40.9 million.