eCBOT Close, Early Call, Export Sales
The overnight grains were mixed, with old crop beans around 3-4 cents higher and new crop months around unchanged; wheat closed 4-5 cents lower and corn 2-3 cents easier.
Whilst I can whip up some enthusiasm to buy wheat or corn further forward, there is precious little to encourage anyone to look at soybeans.
Farm Futures magazine were the latest to emerge with an estimate for US plantings for the 2009/10 crop, coming out with the highest number yet of 79.631 million acres. That's around 3.5 million acres more than the USDA's last estimate in March.
Two and a half million of those acres will come from corn, they say with another half million or so coming from reduced spring wheat plantings (12.86 million acres compared to the USDA's forecast in March of 13.304 million acres).
The rest I assume will be coming from double-cropping straight after winter wheat, and/or other crops such as cotton.
Wheat is suffering from harvest pressure. although the yields and quality coming out of Kansas right now could be better. I think that maybe there is a perception that things will gradually improve as the harvest pushes northwards, away from the areas worst affected by drought and the early April freeze.
In Argentina less than a million hectares of wheat are in the ground according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, yet they are almost two thirds through their optimal planting period, and the exchange currently has them down to plant a tad under 3 million hectares in total. The way things are looking they're going to end up with a crop the size of the Belgium's before long!
The USDA report export sales for the period June 5-11 of 268,800 MT of wheat (within the expected range of 200,000 to 400,000 MT); 1.14 MMT of corn (600,000 - 1,000,000 MT expected) and 250,700 MT of beans (forecasts ranged from 50,000 to 450,000 MT).
On the soybeans front 145,700 MT of those sales were old crop, of which China took a net 49,400 MT, plus they also took 60,000 MT of new-crop.
Actual exports during the week were 392,800 MT for wheat, 817,900 MT for corn and 349,400 MT for beans. China was the principal home taking delivery of 164,400 MT.
So old crop bean sales are still being made, and China is still around buying and taking delivery, which will continue to keep things nice and tight until new-crop.
On the weather front as the Midwest and South bakes, the northern Plains and Great Lakes continues to be “too cool” as measured by “heat units” or GDD’s (Growing Degree Day Units), says Allen Motew at QT Weather. Large departures from normal continue from the Canadian Prairie across the Western Corn Belt and Great Lakes. Lack of heat units potentially brings crop maturation problems and late season woes, especially across those areas that started slow, he warns.
Crude oil and the dollar are a little higher, Wall Street is expected to open slightly firmer.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 2 to 4 lower; wheat called 2 to 5 lower; July soybeans called 2 to 3 higher, November soybeans 1 to 4 lower.
Whilst I can whip up some enthusiasm to buy wheat or corn further forward, there is precious little to encourage anyone to look at soybeans.
Farm Futures magazine were the latest to emerge with an estimate for US plantings for the 2009/10 crop, coming out with the highest number yet of 79.631 million acres. That's around 3.5 million acres more than the USDA's last estimate in March.
Two and a half million of those acres will come from corn, they say with another half million or so coming from reduced spring wheat plantings (12.86 million acres compared to the USDA's forecast in March of 13.304 million acres).
The rest I assume will be coming from double-cropping straight after winter wheat, and/or other crops such as cotton.
Wheat is suffering from harvest pressure. although the yields and quality coming out of Kansas right now could be better. I think that maybe there is a perception that things will gradually improve as the harvest pushes northwards, away from the areas worst affected by drought and the early April freeze.
In Argentina less than a million hectares of wheat are in the ground according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, yet they are almost two thirds through their optimal planting period, and the exchange currently has them down to plant a tad under 3 million hectares in total. The way things are looking they're going to end up with a crop the size of the Belgium's before long!
The USDA report export sales for the period June 5-11 of 268,800 MT of wheat (within the expected range of 200,000 to 400,000 MT); 1.14 MMT of corn (600,000 - 1,000,000 MT expected) and 250,700 MT of beans (forecasts ranged from 50,000 to 450,000 MT).
On the soybeans front 145,700 MT of those sales were old crop, of which China took a net 49,400 MT, plus they also took 60,000 MT of new-crop.
Actual exports during the week were 392,800 MT for wheat, 817,900 MT for corn and 349,400 MT for beans. China was the principal home taking delivery of 164,400 MT.
So old crop bean sales are still being made, and China is still around buying and taking delivery, which will continue to keep things nice and tight until new-crop.
On the weather front as the Midwest and South bakes, the northern Plains and Great Lakes continues to be “too cool” as measured by “heat units” or GDD’s (Growing Degree Day Units), says Allen Motew at QT Weather. Large departures from normal continue from the Canadian Prairie across the Western Corn Belt and Great Lakes. Lack of heat units potentially brings crop maturation problems and late season woes, especially across those areas that started slow, he warns.
Crude oil and the dollar are a little higher, Wall Street is expected to open slightly firmer.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 2 to 4 lower; wheat called 2 to 5 lower; July soybeans called 2 to 3 higher, November soybeans 1 to 4 lower.