eCBOT Close, Early Call
In overnight trade March corn was down 3 cents, March soybeans ended 6 1/4 cents lower and March CBOT wheat was down 7 1/2 cents.
Crude oil is showing little change, yesterday's stocks data showing a rise of 4.1 million barrels last week is undeniably bearish. However news of yet another Nigerian facility attack is keeping the market nervous.
The dollar is firmer once again which will add some downwards pressure.
Weekly export sales for last week were much larger than the trade expected for corn, at 833,400 MT, compared to the 300-700,000 MT anticipated.
For soybeans sales were 370,400 MT of combined old and new crop business. That was a little above expectations of 200-350,000 MT. Again sales for old crop were a marketing year low, China bought most of the new crop (188,000 MT).
Wheat export sales were very poor at only 104,100 MT against expectations of 250-500,000 MT. Physical exports of 472,700 MT just about keep the USDA's full marketing year target on track.
More talk of Brazilian yields coming in lower than anticipated seems to indicate that some estimates of 68 MMT were indeed "pie in the sky". Still a crop of around 64-65 MMT is certainly not to be sneezed at.
Asian rust problems are also emerging in Argentina I hear.
Japan bought 132,000 MT of wheat in its usual weekly tender, some 65,000 MT of that was US origin.
We can probably look for some pre-weekend and pre-USDA positioning over the next couple of sessions.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 3 lower; soybeans called 4 to 6 lower; wheat called 6 to 8 lower.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnights closed firmer with beans around 5-6 cents higher, and with corn and wheat each up around a couple of cents.
The dollar is down a little and crude up a tad, but again thus far it is shaping up to be another relatively non-event. Already the trade appears to be content to wait and see what next week's USDA numbers have to say.
Before that we have tomorrow's weekly export sales report to maybe provide some much needed guidance.
Wheat export sales have picked up somewhat of late, which might see ending stocks reduced slightly from we have been expecting. Corn stocks are also pretty much universally expected to be lowered.
The USDA are now towards the upper end of the range of South American soybean production numbers at 66 MMT for Brazil and 53 MMT for Argentina, so there may be a possibility that we will see those get trimmed a little to - especially Brazil.
US wheat production prospects are mixed, with heavy El Nino rains in Texas likely to yield bumper output there, but conditions elsewhere are less than ideal.
Extreme wetness looks like being an issue again this spring in in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, South Dakota, Missouri and Arkansas. That could have a negative impact on corn and spring wheat plantings.
Crude oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration later today may show crude and distillates stocks increasing by around 1.5 and 1 million barrels each, respectively.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 2 higher; soybeans called 2 to 5 higher; wheat called 1 to 2 higher.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed flat, consolidating from last nights losses, but kept in check by a firm US dollar.
Crude oil isn't doing a great deal thus far either today, in what is shaping up to be a bit of a yawn type afternoon. But then again it is Tuesday, so don't rule out another turnaround reversal of yesterday.
Japan are tendering for 132,000 MT of wheat this week, of which 65,000 MT is US origin. Vietnamese buyers may also be in the market this week for 460,000 MT of soymeal for May/Jul delivery.
Brazilian soybean production estimates seem to have peaked at 68 MMT and are now being trimmed back a little to the 64-65 MMT mark, still a record mind. As too will be Argentine output by the looks of it, albeit again maybe not quite so high as some of the 53 MMT+ estimates that we've seen.
US weekly export inspections came in above expectations for beans, corn and wheat last night. Wheat exports look like they are now actually in line to reach the USDA's 2009/10 marketing year target of 22.5 MMT despite the firm dollar. Even so US ending stocks will be 320% higher than they were two years ago.
Concern over cold and wet conditions, with snowmelt and flooding when temperatures finally do warm up, is already bringing back memories of twelve months ago for US growers. That seems to be keeping a bit of a floor in corn values, at least until we get a bit further into spring.
A further significant strengthening of the US dollar is perhaps the most likely factor that could see further price erosion this week. The potential size of the South American harvests should already be priced in. Logistical problems there might cause some extra export business to go the way of the US in the near-term.
We have the USDA out on Friday with their regular weekly export sales report, followed by world crop production numbers next Wednesday, and the quarterly stocks and prospective plantings report due out at the end of the month.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session are flat to mixed for beans, corn and wheat.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight session closed mixed, with beans 5-6 cents lower, wheat down 2-3 cents and corn a cent or so higher.
Crude oil is a little higher at USD80.26/barrel and the dollar is also firmer.
Iraq bought 380,000 MT of mostly Russian wheat over the weekend, with the remainder being of Australian/Canadian origin.
Cold and wet conditions are already seen potentially delaying spring corn planting. Midwest precipitation has averaged 11.2 inches October through February. This was the highest accumulated precipitation in 60 years, and 3.75 inches above normal, says Gail Martell of Martell Crop Projections.
Hard red winter wheat is coming out of dormancy in the Southern Great Plains. Nights will remain below freezing in Oklahoma and Texas this week but daytime highs are climbing into the 50s F, adds Gail. Topsoil moisture is favourable for growth after a stormy and wet winter. The Pacific Northwest is the area to watch. Sub-par precipitation this winter with El Nino has reduced field moisture for spring growth in the white wheat growing area that comprises 17-18% of US winter wheat, she warns.
Abiove say that Brazilian soybean production will total 65.5 MMT and say that harvesting is 20-22 percent complete.
The size of speculative and fund shorts on CBOT wheat leaves the market vulnerable to a sudden wave of buying for seemingly little fundamental reason.
China's Ministry of Commerce say that the country will import 3.32 MMT of soybeans in both February and March, that's down from imports of over 4 MMT per month recently.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called mixed; soybeans called 4-6cents lower; wheat called 2-4 cents lower.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed mixed to mostly lower. Wheat finished 4-5 cents easier, with corn down 1-2 cents and beans fractions either way.
The stage looks set for another "turnaround Tuesday" after the complex posted some decent gains yesterday. Crude oil is back below USD80/barrel, currently USD1.56 lower at USD78.75/barrel, which will add a bit of spillover weakness to the grains sector.
Reports from South America indicate that yields from early and middle maturity beans in Brazil have been a little disappointing, although later maturing varieties should fare better, it might be that talk of a 68 MMT crop is a bit ambitious.
Recent heavy rains in Argentina may also have taken the top off yields somewhat. "At least one analyst VP Ricardo Baccarin of Panagricola SA is speaking of a smaller crop, due to potential disease issues. He predicts the soybean harvest may top out at 51 MMT," says Gail Martell of Martell Crop Projections.
It's early days yet, but the US weather also seems to be possibly shaping up for a repeat performance of last year, are we in for another cold and wet spring? Flooding looks like it might be a problem in many areas once again.
"North-Central Iowa has received 12.4 inches of moisture between October 1 and mid February. That compares to 6.3 inches normally and threatens to break a 1970-71 record. Western and Central Illinois have received 165-180% of normal precipitation since October 1," adds Gail.
CBOT Early Calls: Corn Down 1-2c, Wheat Down 3-5c, Soy Flat-Down 2c.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains started the week on a firmer tone, with beans ending around 7 cents higher, with corn up 4-5 cents and wheat 3-4 cents firmer.
The dollar is a little easier, and crude oil flirting with USD80/barrel, as Iran pursues it's nuclear program despite western opposition. A bit more growth optimism is also back in the market today.
Greece say that they don't want a bailout, just to be able to borrow at the same rates as everybody else. That seems to have arrested the euro's slide, at least for now.
Some reports suggest that very heavy rains in Argentina may have caused some crop losses over the weekend.
India are adamant that they will have a record wheat crop, despite some reports to the contrary. I guess IF they start exporting then we will know that they are serious. They will need to subsidise any exports heavily though, based on the Rs1,100/100kg they paid Indian farmers for wheat last year, that's USD238/tonne. Egypt bought French and Russian wheat for just USD170/tonne last week.
Russia are set to subsidise up to 3 MMT of intervention wheat to find some more export homes, according to media reports.
Although EU-27 wheat production will increase this year, it is likely to be lower in just about all the other major exporting countries, giving a global wheat crop of around 25 MMT less in 2010/11.
That will make a bit of a hole in world ending stocks, but even so inventories will remain well above average for the last ten years.
Corn stocks to usage looks set to remain fairly tight as more and more of the US crop goes into ethanol production.
There are some reports of drought damage in SW China being the "worst for 60 years". Seeing as last year the drought in the north was the "worst for 100 years" and they still supposedly brought in huge wheat and corn crops, nobody seems to be getting too excited just yet.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 3-5 cents, beans up 5-7 cents, wheat up 2-3 cents.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains finished with beans down around 6-7 cents, wheat was around 3 cents easier with corn down a cent or so.
A firmer dollar, on the back of last nights surprise move by the Fed to increase the discount rate, set the tone. Crude oil is slightly easier.
This weeks USDA Outlook Forum pegged 2010 US wheat production down around 7 MMT to 53 MMT, a drop of some 12% or so. Corn acreage is seen rising 3% to 89 million acres, but a return to "normal" yields of 160.9 bu/acre (from 165.2 bu/acre in 2009) will see output remain flat at around 334 MMT. Soybean area is seen falling slightly to 77 million acres, with yields coming in at 42.9 bu/acre (44 bu/acre in 2009). That would produce a crop of around 88.7 MMT, down 3% on this season's 91.5 MMT.
Weekly export sales were strong for corn, and slightly above expectations for wheat. Soybean sales were poor at little more than 200,000 MT, with no sales at all to China. There were cancellations to "unknown" of 279,000 MT as well, which seems to confirm that China are starting to look to South America for supplies now.
US wheat missed out again in Egypt's latest tender, reportedly being priced some USD40/tonne over the winning French and Russian bids.
US wheat production might be falling in 2010, but EU output is seen almost 5 MMT higher in the coming season. That would push ending stocks up to around 23% of annual usage here in the EU. US ending stocks for 2010/11 are now seen at 25.6 MMT, down 2.1 MMT from 2009/10.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 2 lower; soybeans called 5 to 7 lower; wheat called 2 to 3 lower.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed mixed with beans a tad either side of unchanged, corn down 1-2 and wheat 2-3 lower.
The dollar is up, crude is down and Wall Street is expected to open narrowly mixed.
The USDA's annual outlook forum pegs this year's corn acres at 89 million, up 3%, soybean area is seen 0.5 million lower at 77 million and the all wheat area at 53.8 million, down 9% on last season.
All these are broadly in line with Informa's ideas released late last month, both imply that US spring wheat area will increase quite significantly as the USDA last said that the winter wheat area was down 14%.
Japan bought 100,000 MT of mixed origin wheat, 60,000 MT was US material. Egypt are tendering for 120,000 MT of wheat, with Russia and Kazakhstan the favourites.
There are mixed reports coming out of Pakistan and India concerning the size of their wheat crops. Whilst official estimates remain bullish on crop production there, private reports suggest that output could be down, and maybe significantly so in Pakistan.
With food price inflation soaring, going public with lower output estimates is not in the best interests of the governments there.
Output in Europe is seen rising however, as Strategie Grains increase their wheat production estimate here to 134.7 MMT for soft wheat and 8.8 MMT for durum, giving a total crop of 143.5 MMT, 5.5 MMT up on last year.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 2 lower; soybeans called mixed; wheat called 2 to 3 lower.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed with beans around 4 cents lower, wheat down 2-3 cents and corn a cent or so easier.
Crude is flat at 9c/barrel firmer after rising more than USD3/barrel yesterday. The Energy Dept's stocks report is delayed until tomorrow due to Monday's President's Day holiday. Inventories are expected 1.5-2.0 million barrels higher.
Grains have dipped after yesterday's strong rises, as the dollar arrests Tuesday's declines.
Morocco bought 100,000 MT of US wheat, Japan is tendering for 100,000 MT of mixed origin wheat tomorrow. Iraq are also in the market for "at least" 100,000 MT, and Turkey is tendering to sell 300,000 MT of wheat next week.
Some reports suggest that Indian wheat production will not be in the region of 80-82 MMT this spring and that 78 MMT is nearer the mark.
Significant winterkill may have taken place to Ukraine crops uncovered by snow this year. We won't know the full story until winter grains emerge from dormancy. Alternate frosts and thaws in January and the early part of February has caused "ice crusting" which may mean that a significant acreage needs to be resown.
A few reports coming out of Brazil suggest that this season's soybean crop, whilst still a record, will not be as high as official estimates from Conab, Celeres and the like.
Has the strong seasonal tendency for a February bottom already occurred? March beans closed last night 65 1/2 cents higher than the recent Feb 4th low.
European equities are modestly firmer, and Wall Street is expected to follow suit.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 2 lower; soybeans called 2 to 4 lower; wheat called 2 to 3 lower.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed lower, pressured by a strong dollar, with beans and wheat finishing around 9-10 cents easier and corn down around 3 cents.
Weekly export sales for soybeans were a marketing year low for the second week running, coming in at 312,900 MT for delivery in 2009/10, plus net sales reductions of 46,300 MT for delivery in 2010/11. That makes total sales of just 266,600 MT, below expectations for sales of 300-600,000 MT.
For the record China took 191,300 MT of the old crop sales, but decreased 57,500 MT of new crop. Exports came in at 1,199,000 MT, with the vast majority going to China (647,200 MT0.
Corn sales were 743,200 MT for delivery in 2009/10 plus a small 6,900 MT for delivery in 2010/11, in line with expectations of 700-850,000 MT. Exports of 603,800 MT were down 46 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Wheat sales were 548,200 MT for delivery in 2009/10, plus 29,500 MT for delivery in 2010/11, a little above expectations for sales of 300-450,000 MT. Actual exports of 448,000 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but still fall a little way short of the required 500,000 MT to meet current USDA targets for the marketing year.
China says it is to tighten monetary policy again as they look to slow their rapid growth to keep inflation in check.
Crude oil inventories data is due for release around 15.30 GMT as Chicago opens, the report has been delayed due to the weather.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 2 to 4 lower; soybeans called 8 to 10 lower; wheat called 6 to 8 lower.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnights closed with beans 7-8 cents higher, corn up a couple and wheat down around 3 cents.
The euro grinds lower as EU ministers say a deal has been done to help Greece, but it's not a financial one. Here's the daily chart vs the USD:
First time US jobs claims fell by 43,000 last week, that's more than the 15,000 the market had been anticipating.
Crude oil is flat around USD74-75/barrel. Inventories data is delayed by the weather, as too is the USDA's usual weekly export sales report.
India have agreed to allow wheat to be exported to Nepal. That is being taken as a sign that the government there are happy with winter wheat development, and are confident of another bumper crop March/April.
Indeed, there is some talk that they might be looking, or indeed need, to find some more buyers before new crop comes in. They supposedly had 23 MMT of state-owned reserves on Jan 1st, and estimate that they will have almost 15 MMT of that left on April 1st when they will begin buying new crop wheat at state-support prices.
The problem the Indian government have there is that they will need to take a loss to find buyers on the open global export market.
It would be ironic if they managed to sell some to neighbouring Pakistan, as their wheat crop is in trouble after India diverted all the water to irrigate it's own crops, leaving Pakistani wheat growers literally high and dry.
China keep importing soybeans at a startling rate, they took in 4.08 MMT in January, according to customs data, a 35% increase on a year ago.
They will also start taking in Kazakhstan wheat as early as next month too, according to media reports.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 2 higher; soybeans called 6 to 8 higher; wheat called 1 to 3 lower.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnights closed firmer in what was probably a bit of consolidation from recent losses, and pre-report positioning. Beans closed around 13-14 cents higher, with corn up 3-4 cents and wheat 3-5 cents firmer.
The USDA are out tomorrow with their revised stocks numbers and possibly a few tweaks to global production too.
For corn 2009/10 ending stocks are seen falling from 1.764 billion to 1.748 billion bushels, soybeans are seen declining from 245 million to 219 million and wheat stocks are expected to drop from 976 million last month to 973 million this time round.
At least that is what the average trade guess reckons.
Some are forecasting that corn and wheat ending stocks could actually increase. As the USDA aren't expected to make any revision to this season's production numbers this month then any change to ending stocks will have to come from increase usage or exports.
Whilst we all know that US soybean exports have been running along at a great old pace, the same isn't quite true for corn or wheat.
Taking the shine off any reduction in the US soybean ending stocks number, will be a possible increase in global ending stocks, and maybe even slightly increased output again from South America.
World wheat ending stocks rose by almost 5.7 MMT last month to 195.6 MMT, a further increase there would put wheat under more pressure even with the US winter wheat acreage for next harvest being to lowest since 1913.
Global corn ending stocks also rose by almost 4 MMT last month, and soybean carryout by 2.7 MMT.
Last month's USDA report didn't appear to accurately reflect this season's problems with the corn harvest, an abundance of low quality corn will surely impact upon wheat demand from the feed sector? US wheat exports have picked up somewhat in recent weeks, but are still running behind schedule to hit the USDA's target of 22.5 MMT this marketing year.
Today's normal weekly export inspections report from the USDA has been delayed until Tuesday due to a large winter storm over the weekend in Washington.
Crude oil is around USD71.50/barrel and the dollar appears poised for another strong week boosted by risk aversion. That could temper any gains tonight, although the market will be wary of the USDA throwing in another curveball.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 2 to 4 higher; soybeans called 8 to 12 higher; wheat called 3 to 5 higher.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed mixed, with soybeans around 3 cents higher, corn down 2-3 cents and wheat down 3-4 cents.
Crude oil is a little higher at USD73.62/barrel after taking a trashing and falling almost 5% yesterday. The dollar is fully steady as a few litters return and risk aversion is back on the menu.
US non-farm payroll data has disappointed, with a further 20,000 jobs lost in January, contrary to market expectations of an estimated 15,000 jobs being created last month.
Despite that though, the Labor (no, I don't know why they spell it like that either) Department did a bit of "creative accounting" and found some jobs that had fallen down the back of a filing cabinet last month. They say that the unemployment rate is now 9.7% from 10% in December. Analysts had been expecting unchanged or maybe a 0.1% increase in unemployment.
The euro is taking another pasting on concern over the plight of Greece, and other euro nations having to take some unpleasant medicine.
The trade will now start to focus on wheat the USDA are going to say in next Tuesday's S&D report. For corn 09/10 ending stocks are forecast to decline from 1.764 to 1.748 billion bushels, soybean 09/10 ending stocks are also seen being reduced, from 245 to 219 million bushels. The average trade guess even sees 09/10 wheat stocks falling from 976 to 973 million bushels.
It's a tallish, but not impossible, task for US wheat exports to match the current USDA target of 22.5 MMT, we shall see. Certainly the case for reducing soybean stocks is an easy one to make.
US wheat missed out again in Egypt's tender announced yesterday.
Australia wheat production finished at 22 MMT, according to ABARE. Some reports suggest that farmers there will plant less wheat for 2010/11, due to the current very depressed domestic prices. These have been accentuated by a sharply higher Australian dollar.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 2 lower; soybeans called 1 to 3 higher; wheat called 2 to 4 lower.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed higher with beans up around 5 cents, wheat 3-4 cents higher and corn 2-3 cents firmer.
The dollar is a little firmer and crude oil is down around half a dollar.
Data released yesterday showed that crude stocks rose in the US last week, despite US refineries running at less than 78% capacity, the lowest utilisation in a hurricane-free period since 1990. Given that temperatures in the US have been very cold this past few weeks, what does that tell us about demand?
The USDA's weekly export sales report was below expectations for soybeans, but in line with ideas for wheat and corn.
Corn gets a shot in the arm from news that the Environmental Protection Agency has been leaned on, and suddenly decided to re-analyse the way it ascertains whether corn ethanol beats gasoline’s carbon emissions by 20%. It's now decided that it does, which means that corn ethanol now has the door open to potentially exceed the current 15 billion gallon limit.
South American corn and soybean crops are getting bigger, say Informa, much bigger.
Iraq bought "at least" 700,000 MT of wheat yesterday say the newswires. An estimated 300,000 MT of that came from Canada, with the US getting 100,000 MT away themselves. The remainder may have consisted of Russian, Australian and German wheat it seems, although exact details are a little sketchy.
Agri-food Canada peg the upcoming 2010 Canadian wheat crop at 24.7 MMT, down 6.8% on last year, mainly due to a sharp decrease in durum acreage.
Japan purchased 85,000 MT of mostly US wheat in it's usual routine Thursday tender.
Egypt are also out shopping again too, they won't find any shortage of willing suitors. Russia and Kazakhstan look the favourites once again.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 2 higher; soybeans called 2 to 5 higher; wheat called 1 to 3 higher.
Given the strength being displayed by the dollar this afternoon, I will be surprised to see things close in positive territory myself.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed narrowly mixed, despite having been in positive territory for most of the morning. Beans closed flat to a cent firmer, corn down 1-2 cents and wheat down fractions of a cent.
Neither crude oil, the US dollar or the stock markets are doing anything too exciting either, all just showing small fluctuations either way.
Whether last night's stronger close across the board was some sort of floor and really means anything, or is it simply a selling opportunity, only time will tell.
There is very little change in any of the fundamentals that's for sure. Informa are out later today with their latest world production estimates, maybe they can throw some pearls our way?
Beneficial thunderstorms are seen returning to Argentina's grain belt. A powerful storm is developing in the US Southern Plains, with more rain predicted for Texas-Oklahoma wheat, says Gail Martell of Martell Crop Projections.
Jordan bought 100,000 MT of Black Sea wheat overnight, and Japan is looking for 85,000 MT of mostly US wheat tomorrow. Iraq might also be in the market, according to some reports.
South Korea is looking for 55,000 MT of corn, and China is to sell around 200,000 MT of state-owned soybean reserves.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: soybeans called flat; wheat and corn 1-2 cents lower.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed firmer, with beans 4-5 cents higher, corn up 3-4 cents and wheat 9-10 cents higher.
The dollar is off yesterday's highs a little and crude oil is a tad firmer.
There doesn't seem to have been any huge shift in fundamentals, and the trend remains lower across the grains complex, however it looks as if we may see a bit of a correction from recent steep losses today.
The soybean harvest is around 5% done in Brazil, more than double last season's pace, reflecting the large increase in early sown, fast maturing varieties planted for this season's harvest.
There are already reports of logistical problems in Mato Grosso.
in the US HRW wheat states, the snowmelt from last week's winter storm will replenish topsoil moisture but it was still not enough to offset winter drought, says Gail Martell of Martell Crop Projections. Conditions have been extremely dry in southern Kansas, the northern Texas panhandle and northern Oklahoma. Barely half of normal moisture was received November-January, including the recent snow storm, says Gail.
Japan are tendering for 85,000 MT of wheat this week, of which 65,000 MT is US origin. It will be interesting to see if weekly export sales for wheat can hold up for a third week in Thursday's USDA report. Weekly shipments need to average 500,000 MT/week for the remainder of the marketing year to reach the USDA's projected target.
There are no such problems for soybean export inspections, which are currently at 67.8% of USDA projections, that is well above the 55.2% for the five year average. Sales now need to only average 14.3 million bushels/week (390,000 MT) for the remainder of the season.
For US corn, quality remains a major issue, and one that might worsen when warmer weather finally arrives.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 3 higher; soybeans called 3 to 5 higher; wheat called 7 to 10 higher.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed modestly lower with corn and beans down 1-2 cents and wheat off 2-3 cents.
The dollar is firmer, boosted by US GDP growing by 5.7% in Q4, that's much better than the 4.5-4.7% that the market had been expecting, and substantially up on growth in Q3.
A winter storm across the US Southern Plains has brought freezing rain, snow and sleet to the winter wheat states of Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
Precipitation will accumulate to 1-1.5 inches in the Texas panhandle and 1.5-2 inches in Oklahoma, where moisture is badly needed to alleviate drought. Texas wheat conditions have deteriorated to 28% good-excellent, 38% fair and 34% poor to very poor, says Gail Martell of Martell Crop Projections.
Very cold weather has resumed in the US Great Plains and Midwest after a 10-day respite. Morning temperatures are 10- 12 F below zero in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Wind chills near 0 F are being reported Kansas, Missouri and southern Illinois. Bitterly cold weather is expected to persist through the weekend. Moderating temperatures are expected next week, yet temperatures will remain below average, adds Gail.
There are the first signs of a potential weather problem brewing for Argentina, with a hot and dry weekend in store. Some forecasters are predicting rain from next Wednesday however.
Continued heavy rains in Brazil are making the early Mato Grosso harvest a stop start affair.
US wheat export sales have now had two decent weeks on the trot, that's the first time that has happened for a while, although two swallows don't make a summer (ooh Missus).
There is still some talk of China having cancelled US cargoes of soybeans recently.
Yesterday's US crush numbers for soybeans were record large, which should add some support.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and beans called steady to 2 cents lower; wheat called 1 to 3 lower.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnights closed mixed, mostly up a little, but off early session highs. Beans closed around 2-3 cents firmer, with wheat up 1-2 cents and corn narrowly mixed either side of unchanged.
Yesterday's nervousness ahead of last night's State of the Union address by Obama has petered out, along with some relief that he didn't announce any major banking reforms.
Weekly export sales from the USDA were in line with expectations with wheat at 689,200 MT, corn at 902,300 MT, and soybeans at 857,100 MT. As per usual China took the vast majority of the beans. Interestingly, they also booked 50,000 MT of US wheat.
The US Census Bureau report that the soybean crush in December was a record 173.0 million bushels. Whilst China also continues to take US soybeans at the current rate, that all adds up to a pretty impressive rate of disposal. However, there are some reports that at least one cargo of US beans is in trouble in China due to quality issues. There are also reports of a few Chinese cancellations/reschedules kicking around.
Meanwhile they continue to toughen up lending and reserve regulations for their own banks.
Record soybean production from Brazil and Argentina awaits, the only question left to be answered is how big is big? Corn output there is also seen higher than originally thought.
US wheat sales and shipments have picked up a little this past couple of weeks, and they need to to reach the USDA's projected target. Egypt remains unimpressed, buying three cargoes of all-Russian wheat again yesterday.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called flat to 2 higher; beans called 2 to 4 higher; wheat called 1 to 3 higher.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight market closed mostly lower with beans down 6-7 cents, corn down 1-2 cents and wheat a cent or so either side of unchanged.
Crude is a little higher after yesterday's API report said that US stocks unexpectedly fell 2.2 million barrels last week, against an anticipated rise of 1.4 million barrels. The US Energy Dept will give their estimate on stocks later today.
The market will be nervous, with Obama set to deliver his State of the Union address tonight, and what he might have in mind for US banks. If they can't put their own house in order, then they need somebody to do it for them. That might mean negative implications for the grains complex in the short-term.
Meanwhile China is also trying to reform it's own banking sector by tightening credit constraints. That too might lead to a drop in buying interest in US soybeans, although one report circulating this week suggested that China would increase it's soybean crushing capacity by 6 MMT during 2010.
The Fed are expected to leave US interest rates where they are today, but the wording of their accompanying statement for clues on a tightening fiscal policy will be heavily scrutinised.
Both the Rosario and Buenos Aires Grain Exchanges see the 2010 Argentine corn crop around 18 MMT, 3 MMT higher than the USDA's last estimate, and 5.4 MMT above last year.
Taiwan purchased 60,000 MT of Argentine/Brazil corn for March shipment overnight.
Egypt and Algeria are tendering for wheat this week, with few expecting US origin to get a look in.
Georgia has said it will allow Kazakhstan to use it's rail network to transport wheat to Egypt, which it says will make it much cheaper for landlocked Kazakh grain to get to the world's largest wheat buyer.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 1 to 2 lower; beans called 4 to 6 lower; wheat called steady to 2 lower.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed mixed withe beans ending around 1-2 cents lower, and corn and wheat a cent or two higher.
Crude oil is down a tad, and the dollar barely changed in a quiet start to the week.
The market still seems nervous over last week's tough talking from Obama re tightening regulations on speculation in commodities.
Informa and Allendale are both forecasting increased US corn and soybean area for spring 2010.
Almost everybody is now talking a Brazilian soybean crop of 65 MMT, easily a record. One report I read last week suggested that Bunge are privately pegging it at 66 MMT. Argentine farmers are finally set to get an overdue break with a record 52 MMT bean crop there too.
Whilst recent rains may have slowed the Mato Grosso harvest a little they is surely only delaying the inevitable, although China was once again another featured big buyer of US beans last week. They've been accounting for 75% of all the weekly soybean sales for month now, when they finally switch their attention to South America it's going to leave one hell of a void.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and wheat called 1 to 2 higher; soybeans called steady to 2 lower.
