IGC Raise Global Wheat Production Estimates
The International Grains Council say that the world will produce 8 MMT more wheat in 2009/10 than they had previously estimated.
Global wheat production will now come in at 662MT they say, still 8.7% or 25 MMT down on last season's record output of 687 MMT.
The extra production comes from increases in Ukraine, the EU, the US and China, it says.
Consumption is left unchanged at 642 MMT.
Their production estimate is almost 3 MMT higher than the USDA's whilst their consumption figure is more than 3 MMT lower. All these adjustments, strangely, now mean that 2009/10 ending stocks are now exactly the same the USDA's estimate at 183 MMT.
Surely, given that India's summer rice acreage is down 20%, and India have a population approaching 1.2 billion, maybe an increase in consumption there is on the cards for 2009/10?
China is the other interesting area for discussion here. I find it all very strange that a country in the grip of a terrible drought in the middle of the growing season should ultimately bring in a record crop. A quick search on the blog throws up that on Feb 7, Henan province had its first rainfall for 110 days - and that was just 6 mm. So newly planted wheat in Henan had no rain at all for the first three months of it's life, yet China brings in a record crop. Maintaining this nice steady upwards growth, no matter what, for the seventh year in succession. Now I ask you, how likely was that?
I didn't go to China to see how bad, or otherwise, things were at harvest time, and I don't suppose you did either? But come on. Planted area for the 2009 wheat crop incidentally was just 1.25% higher than in 2008, just in case you were wondering.
Global wheat production will now come in at 662MT they say, still 8.7% or 25 MMT down on last season's record output of 687 MMT.
The extra production comes from increases in Ukraine, the EU, the US and China, it says.
Consumption is left unchanged at 642 MMT.
Their production estimate is almost 3 MMT higher than the USDA's whilst their consumption figure is more than 3 MMT lower. All these adjustments, strangely, now mean that 2009/10 ending stocks are now exactly the same the USDA's estimate at 183 MMT.
Surely, given that India's summer rice acreage is down 20%, and India have a population approaching 1.2 billion, maybe an increase in consumption there is on the cards for 2009/10?
China is the other interesting area for discussion here. I find it all very strange that a country in the grip of a terrible drought in the middle of the growing season should ultimately bring in a record crop. A quick search on the blog throws up that on Feb 7, Henan province had its first rainfall for 110 days - and that was just 6 mm. So newly planted wheat in Henan had no rain at all for the first three months of it's life, yet China brings in a record crop. Maintaining this nice steady upwards growth, no matter what, for the seventh year in succession. Now I ask you, how likely was that?
I didn't go to China to see how bad, or otherwise, things were at harvest time, and I don't suppose you did either? But come on. Planted area for the 2009 wheat crop incidentally was just 1.25% higher than in 2008, just in case you were wondering.
