Weekend Ramblings
As the euro continues to plunge lower than Kerry Katona's IQ, European wheat is making inroads to all sorts of unusual destinations and far flung corners of the world.
Bunge have sold 30,000 MT of French wheat to Mexico for loading at the end of this month, according to reports. That highlights just how uncompetitive US wheat has become, and the advantage of having a currency only marginally more desirable than the Zimbabwe dollar.
Feast or famine Spain (usually the UK's top wheat export home) has had more than it's fair share of rain this winter, helping it to expect a bumper grain harvest this summer. The country expects a winter grain crop 13.4% higher than last season at 15.17 MMT say the Ag Ministry, with soft wheat output increasing by 18% to 4 MMT and barley production up by 17%.
Wheat output might be seen higher in Europe this year, but it's expected to be lower just about everywhere else of any significance (apart from those lovable surrender monkeys Argentina). Talking of people who love to take a dive in the penalty box, German analysts F O Licht say that 2010/11 global wheat production will fall to 653.9 MMT from 675.4 MMT in 2009/10.
The sausage-munching firm say that world barley production will also decline from 149.7 MMT to 140.8 MMT in the coming season. Global corn output is seen increasing from 786.6 MMT to 795.2 MMT, they add.
The "back of a fag packet" USDA are out on Tuesday with their May stocks estimates. The trade is estimating 2009/10 soybean US ending stocks to fall from 190 million bushels last month to 180 million this time round. Corn stocks are seen declining slightly to 1.861 billion, with wheat carryout also a tad lower at 946 million bushels - that's a hefty 25.75 MMT.
They will also have a stab at predicting ending stocks for 2010/11 too, with soybean inventories seen recovering to around 340 million bushels, with corn expected at 1.9 billion and wheat staying at similar levels to the current MY at 953 million.
The Argy soybean harvest is now 77% complete, according to those pathological liars the Ag Ministry. The corn harvest is 63% done and the sunflower harvest just about over, they add. Winter wheat planting kicks off this month, with big increases on the cards. No stranger to cards, the Argies.
Talking of liars, the Indian Farm Ministry say that monsoon rains will arrive on time and be normal this year. Blimey, they have enough trouble sussing out what's happened in the past, but now they can see into the future as well. Look out for these lads in a forthcoming edition of Dr Who. They still insist that 2010 wheat output will be higher than last season, bless. Shouldn't these people be in a home or something? (Prison more likely - Ed)
Bunge have sold 30,000 MT of French wheat to Mexico for loading at the end of this month, according to reports. That highlights just how uncompetitive US wheat has become, and the advantage of having a currency only marginally more desirable than the Zimbabwe dollar.
Feast or famine Spain (usually the UK's top wheat export home) has had more than it's fair share of rain this winter, helping it to expect a bumper grain harvest this summer. The country expects a winter grain crop 13.4% higher than last season at 15.17 MMT say the Ag Ministry, with soft wheat output increasing by 18% to 4 MMT and barley production up by 17%.
Wheat output might be seen higher in Europe this year, but it's expected to be lower just about everywhere else of any significance (apart from those lovable surrender monkeys Argentina). Talking of people who love to take a dive in the penalty box, German analysts F O Licht say that 2010/11 global wheat production will fall to 653.9 MMT from 675.4 MMT in 2009/10.
The sausage-munching firm say that world barley production will also decline from 149.7 MMT to 140.8 MMT in the coming season. Global corn output is seen increasing from 786.6 MMT to 795.2 MMT, they add.
The "back of a fag packet" USDA are out on Tuesday with their May stocks estimates. The trade is estimating 2009/10 soybean US ending stocks to fall from 190 million bushels last month to 180 million this time round. Corn stocks are seen declining slightly to 1.861 billion, with wheat carryout also a tad lower at 946 million bushels - that's a hefty 25.75 MMT.
They will also have a stab at predicting ending stocks for 2010/11 too, with soybean inventories seen recovering to around 340 million bushels, with corn expected at 1.9 billion and wheat staying at similar levels to the current MY at 953 million.
The Argy soybean harvest is now 77% complete, according to those pathological liars the Ag Ministry. The corn harvest is 63% done and the sunflower harvest just about over, they add. Winter wheat planting kicks off this month, with big increases on the cards. No stranger to cards, the Argies.
Talking of liars, the Indian Farm Ministry say that monsoon rains will arrive on time and be normal this year. Blimey, they have enough trouble sussing out what's happened in the past, but now they can see into the future as well. Look out for these lads in a forthcoming edition of Dr Who. They still insist that 2010 wheat output will be higher than last season, bless. Shouldn't these people be in a home or something? (Prison more likely - Ed)