Nogger's Blog

25/03/11 -- Soybeans: May 11 beans closed at USD13.58 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; May 11 meal closed at USD357.20, down USD2.60; May 11 oil closed at 56.84, up 72 points. Initial early support came from stronger corn, but beans still managed to hold onto some gains even as the corn market fell away. Bean prices need to stay high enough to "buy" acres from corn, at least that's the theory ahead of next week's USDA planting intentions report. Trade estimates for US spring soybean plantings vary quite widely from 75.3 to 79 million acres.

Corn: May 11 corn closed at USD6.89 1/2, down 13 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.09 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents. The USDA announced the sale of 1.25 MMT of old crop US corn to "unknown" along with a further 250,000 MT of new crop. Having been rumoured to have been a heavy recent buyer all week, the trade immediately assumed that this was China, although some reports suggest that it may have been Japan. The market opened higher, with May hitting USD7.17/bu, up 14 1/2 cents, before a buy the rumour, sell the fact mentality kicked in and the market sold off ahead of the weekend and next week's USDA acreage report, where the trade is forecasting increased spring plantings of 91.2 to 93 million acres.

Wheat: May 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD7.33 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents; May 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD8.55, up 1 3/4 cents; May 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD8.81, down 2 1/4 cents. Wheat followed corn higher in early trade with the May CBOT future reaching USD7.52/bu, up 12 1/2 cents on the day at one stage, before selling off later in the session as corn capitulated. Legitimate weather concerns still remain for US wheat, with the Plains HRW wheat areas way too dry and SRW states too wet. In North Dakota, which typically accounts for 40-45% of the US spring wheat crop, the current snow depth is 16-20 inches.