Nogger's Blog

04/10/11 -- Soybeans: Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD11.60, down 17 1/2 cents; Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD11.71 3/4, down 17 cents; Oct 11 Soybean Meal finished at YSD298.30, down USD4.90;
Oct 11 Soybean Oil closed at 48.79, down 97 points. Funds were estimated to have sold 10,000 soybean contracts on the day as their appetite to stick with the "golden child" that agri-commodities have become gets tested to the limit. In addition to the omnipresent threat of a Greek debt default we now how Fed chairman Ben Bernanke saying that the US economy too is close to faltering. It certainly is, and Greece could quite easily push it over the edge. Harvest pressure added to the bearish tone.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD5.8473/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.00 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents. Funds were reckoned to have sold around 12,000 contracts on the day as bullish enthusiasm took another kicking. The US Grains Council did their best to support the market, playing the old favourite "Chinese demand" trump card, but even that failed to get the market into positive territory. They said that corn production in China this year will only amount to 167 MMT, which is 11 MMT less than the USDA currently estimate. That will leave them needing to import 5-10 MMT of corn in 2011/12, the USGC added.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.04, down 15 1/2 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.86 1/2, down 15 1/2 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat was down 22 1/2 cents at USD8.62 3/4. Funds were estimated to have added a further 5,000 CBOT contracts to their existing net short position today. Spillover weakness from corn, a firm US dollar and falling crude oil all added to the bearish tone. Decent weekend rains are on the forecast for parched winter wheat areas on the southern Plains. Final harvest estimates out of Russia keep increasing, as too does their export potential.