Nogger's Blog

04/10/11 -- EU grains closed with Nov11 London down GBP2.15/tonne at GBP146.10/tonne and Nov11 Paris wheat EUR3.00/tonne lower at EUR182.25/tonne. Paris corn, rapeseed and malting barley all closed around EUR4.00-5.00/tonne lower too as the meltdown continues.

This was a new 14-month low front month close for both London and Paris wheat, neither of which seem to be able to buy a rally at the moment. London has finished down on fifteen of the last twenty trading sessions as the trend remains unquestionably lower.

Greek debt woes are to the forefront with London, French and German stocks closing around 2.5-3.0% lower.

Elsewhere, FSU crops keep getting bigger. The Russian grain harvest now stands at 89.5 MMT with 12% of the planted area still left to cut. The corn harvest in Ukraine is now well underway at 28% complete, producing 5.5 MMT so far. That implies a crop of 19.6 MMT versus the USDA projection of 18 MMT.

The Russian Grain Union pretty much say that the only limit on grain exports this season is down to logistics. Meanwhile Kazakhstan are about to bring in a record grain crop of their own and are eager to find buyers before prices fall further.

Egypt says that it is to increase the quality criteria of it's wheat imports, faced with a barrage of cheap high protein FSU wheat. It is still mulling the reliability of supplies out of Ukraine.

Winter grain plantings in Ukraine have reached 62% of the planned area, with wheat sowings at 69%, Only 5-10% of the crops have sprouted so far due to recent dryness but heavy rain is forecast for the end of the week which should alleviate the situation.

StatsCanada peg all wheat production there this year at 24.16 MMT, 1 MMT up on a year ago and slightly higher than their previous estimate and the latest USDA figure.