Chicago Consolidates After Recent Gains

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:52 | Categorized as

20/03/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.45, down 21 1/2 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.07 1/4, down 18 1/4 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD365.60, down USD5.30; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 54.33, down 107 points. A heavily overbought market has been due a bit of consolidation, and today was the day despite not a great deal of change in the fundamentals. With the USDA out with their prospective plantings report next week an assortment of private analysts are coming out with their own estimates. For soybeans Linn Group today came out with 76.7 million acres and Newedge with 76.0 million, compared to last month's Outlook figure from the USDA of 75 million. Funds sold an estimated 7,000 soybean contracts on the day. Oil World cut their Brazilian crop estimate 1.5 MMT to 66.5 MMT.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.47 1/2, down 16 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.60 1/4, down 10 cents. Funds were said to have dumped a hefty 18.000 lots today on broad-based commodity selling. Outside markets were sharply lower in the main too. When the funds get spooked like this there's really only one likely outcome. The question now is will they be over it by tomorrow? Newedge estimate 2012 US corn plantings at 93.7 million acres, Linn group say 94.8 million versus the USDA's 94 million last month. Cordonnier pegs them at 95.5 mil with a 161-162 bu/acre yield. That is 1.5 million acres higher than the USDA, although with a 2-3bu/acre lower yield.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.42 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.80 1/2, down 11 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.99 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 2,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. Linn Group gave us an all wheat planting estimate of 57 million, versus 58 million from the USDA last month. ADM Investor Services go 58.2 million as do Newedge. All of those are sharply higher on last season's 54.4 million. Winter wheat crop conditions are significantly better than twelve months ago, with 70% of Oklahoma's crop rated good/excellent and the Kansas crop coming in at 54% in the top two categories. Beneficial rain has fallen since those numbers came out too.