The Morning Vibe

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:48 | Categorized as

21/03/12 -- Concerns about Chinese economic growth hang over the market after it raised its fuel prices for the second time in less than six weeks yesterday.

European woes haven't gone away either, with reports in the media now suggesting that the Dutch are possibly the latest nation to fail to meet budget targets agreed with the European Commission. Meanwhile, reluctantly thrust into the limelight is Portugal, where five-year bond yields are around 16 percent.

After two days of consolidation, profit-taking, call it what you will, the overnight market is flat. Funds are thought to have ditched 28,000 corn contracts in the past two sessions.

Every man and his dog are lining up to chuck their 2012 US planting estimates at us. We have to wait until next Friday for the USDA to give us theirs. It's safe to say that with prices where they are plantings will be large.

Russia's grain exports have slowed right up, with only 400,000 MT setting sail for foreign climbs in the first ten days of March, according to IKAR. That would bring exports to around 21 MMT for the 2011/12 marketing year to date, using Rusagrotrans' estimate of 20.6 MMT being shipped in the Jul/Feb period.

So it looks like we may finish the month with Russian exports of around 21.5 MMT, if things carry on at this rate shipments for the entire season may struggle to get past 25 MMT.

That means that they'll have a bit more carryover than expected heading into the 2012/13 marketing year, which they will no doubt welcome with their customary enthusiasm given anything like a half decent new crop.