US Midwest Weather Outlook
(Freese Notis) -- With the lack of inundating rains in the Corn Belt since about June 12th, we have seen corn and soybean crops in the region post a bit of a recovery from the overly wet conditions seen throughout much of the spring. That said, the improvement in corn ratings this week to 59 percent good to excellent and 57 percent good/excellent in soybeans is nothing to get excited about (as both crops are rated way below the levels of a year ago at this time) and shows that there are still real question marks about what yield potential we have left.
Crop ratings are now getting more presstime than planting progress, but I think that it is worth noting that this week's soybean planting progress at 91 percent done is the slowest since 1996 and suggests that farmers still have just under seven million acres of soybeans left to get in the ground. A part of that is double crop acreage, which may not go into the ground real soon due to a late start to the winter wheat harvest in the eastern Corn Belt (the harvest was well behind the 5-year average in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana).
I think that it is still a decent weather forecast coming up for the bulk of the Midwest. Through the next ten days to two weeks, extreme heat will be found in especially the western third of the Nation. At times we will likely see that heat attempt to make its way into the far western Corn Belt (Monday and Tuesday of next week will be examples of that) but it will be unable to maintain that presence for very long (this weekend, for example, will likely average a bit on the cool side of normal for much of the Midwest).
With regards to rainfall, the further east that you go in the Midwest, the better your rainfall chances look to be as we head into the opening days of July. That does not eliminate rainfall chances in the west though, as we've seen early on this Tuesday with thunderstorms overnight in Nebraska. There are daily chances for widely scattered thunderstorms in the Midwest for the rest of this work-week, with the best amounts and coverage probably coming with the arrival of a fairly strong cold front for Friday and Friday night. Severe weather looks possible through the end of the work-week as well, probably culminating with a significant outbreak on Friday.
Crop ratings are now getting more presstime than planting progress, but I think that it is worth noting that this week's soybean planting progress at 91 percent done is the slowest since 1996 and suggests that farmers still have just under seven million acres of soybeans left to get in the ground. A part of that is double crop acreage, which may not go into the ground real soon due to a late start to the winter wheat harvest in the eastern Corn Belt (the harvest was well behind the 5-year average in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana).
I think that it is still a decent weather forecast coming up for the bulk of the Midwest. Through the next ten days to two weeks, extreme heat will be found in especially the western third of the Nation. At times we will likely see that heat attempt to make its way into the far western Corn Belt (Monday and Tuesday of next week will be examples of that) but it will be unable to maintain that presence for very long (this weekend, for example, will likely average a bit on the cool side of normal for much of the Midwest).
With regards to rainfall, the further east that you go in the Midwest, the better your rainfall chances look to be as we head into the opening days of July. That does not eliminate rainfall chances in the west though, as we've seen early on this Tuesday with thunderstorms overnight in Nebraska. There are daily chances for widely scattered thunderstorms in the Midwest for the rest of this work-week, with the best amounts and coverage probably coming with the arrival of a fairly strong cold front for Friday and Friday night. Severe weather looks possible through the end of the work-week as well, probably culminating with a significant outbreak on Friday.
